KLCI Stock - AJIYA / 7609 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	116,988,257 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.69-0.06)/0.1659 = 9.83 (High)
Target Price	1.16+0.06 = 1.22 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.1659, DPS 0.06)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 1.6
Comment	Revenue decreased 14.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.7%, eps decreased 62.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 41%, cash generated from operating enough to cover bank borrowing repayment but spent 25% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity at high level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, inventory increasing can indicate sales demand still good
First Support Price	1.6
Second Support Price	1.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price

1.94 (2011-10-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	6.58%
Dividend Yield	3.55%
Profit Margin	5.94%
Tax Rate	30.87%
Asset Turnover	1.0697
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.99
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.99
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.56
Cash Per Share	0.38
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.5699
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.2605
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.4979
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2948
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1874
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	39.1%
Days to sell the inventory	78
Days to collect the receivables	98
Days to pay the payables	47

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt mainly due to the absorption of the increase in the material cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0395*4*1.05 = 0.1659, estimate PE on current price 1.69 = 9.83(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.157*2*0.9 = 0.2826, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.26/5.1 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0529*4*1.05 = 0.2222, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.46/7.11 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.07(average eps from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.46/6.25 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.08(average eps)*4*0.95 = 0.304, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.84/6.38 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.19/5.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0816*4 = 0.3264+0.0163 = 0.3427 (5% grow from 0.3264 due to recovery from previous weak market), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.16/4.99 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.312(2% drop from 0.3184), estimate PE on current price 2.14 = 6.67(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.39/5.18 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.23, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.22 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/4.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.69/3.65 (DPS 0.06)

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