KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,777,555,236 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.78-0.17)/0.2864 = 12.60 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.72+0.17 = 3.89 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.2864, DPS 0.17)
Decision	BUY if for dividend keep
Comment	Revenue increased 1.7% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.4%, eps increased 73.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover dividend expenses hence spent 25.3% of Group cash to cover other expenses , weaker liquidity ratio from very strong to strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, all division business growth
First Support Price	3.74
Second Support Price	3.55
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	3.75 (2011-02-23)
OSK Target Price	3.12 (2011-10-25)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	6.80%
Dividend Yield	20.11%
Profit Margin	23.15%
Tax Rate	27.06%
Asset Turnover	0.4792
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.56
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.12
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.24
Cash Per Share	1.39
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.7508
Liquidity Quick Ratio	4.7063
Liquidity Cash Ratio	3.4029
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1445
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1261
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	78.4%
Days to sell the inventory	4
Days to collect the receivables	93
Days to pay the payables	88

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Port operations got an increase of 2.6% against the figure for the same quarter last year. Throughput registered during the third quarter was 807,312 TEUs, a decrease of 5.4% compared to the throughput for the corresponding period last year of 853,804 TEUs. The year-to-date throughput achieved is 2,410,716 TEUs, a decrease of 4.1% compared against 2,513,281 TEUs corresponding period last year

- The increase in revenue of logistics operations was mainly from the expansion of 3rd Party (3PL) business activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0865+0.0499)*2*1.05 = 0.2864, estimate PE on current price 3.78 = 12.6(DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/8.83 (DPS 0.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/11.47 (DPS 0.69)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2922*0.95 = 0.2776(due to unknown reason profit dropped), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.46/9 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3408*0.95 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/10.01 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1623*2*1.05 = 0.3408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.04/9.65 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.4/8.34 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

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