KLCI Stock - DAYANG / 5141 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,061,500,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.93-0.1)/0.1325 = 13.81 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.86+0.1 = 1.96 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1325, DPS 0.1)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price very strong sustain and uptrend whenever MACD bullish
Comment	Revenue decreased 24.5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.2%, eps increased 24.9% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.2%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 4.5% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, margin still good, slghtly weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, higher debt ratio but still less than 30%, all collection/repayment period is acceptable
First Support Price	1.86
Second Support Price	1.75
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

RHB Target Price	2.07 (2012-01-19)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.5 (2012-05-23)
OSK Target Price	2.26 (2012-05-23)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	21.06%
Dividend Yield	5.18%
Gross Profit Margin	38.51%
Operating Profit Margin	26.02%
Net Profit Margin	26.95%
Tax Rate	22.03%
Asset Turnover	0.545
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.91
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.91
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.2
Cash Per Share	0.45
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.5079
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.4928
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.2313
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3654
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2676
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	74.9%
Days to sell the inventory	3
Days to collect the receivables	137
Days to pay the payables	153

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.944 (Downtrend 15 days)
SMA 50	1.982 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.027 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.892 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.019493 ( 0.001665 )
Signal (9)	-0.022759 ( 0.000817 )
MACD Histogram	0.003266 (Bullish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.046
Bolinger Lower Band	1.842

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to inclement weather resulting in lower value of work orders received and performed in the current quarter for the topside maintenance services, the hook-up commissioning and maintenance services and the marine segment

- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 due to higher profit margin and demobilisation costs were incurred for a contract nearing its expiry and also new mobilisation costs were incurred in anticipation of the award of new contract in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 502299*0.145/549700 = 0.1325, estimate PE on current price 1.93 = 13.81(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 523694*0.15/530333 = 0.1481, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.52/12.15 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.187, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.07/8.88 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0442+0.0354)*2*1.1 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.57/7.48 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0354*4*1.2 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/9.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326(17927/550000)*4*1.1 = 0.1434, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.06/12.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0526*4*1.1 = 0.2314, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.22/12.14 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1239*1.1 = 0.1363 (0.1239 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.94/14.16 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.129/4(average eps from recent 4Q)*0.9 = 0.1161 (10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.67/12.79 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1237*0.9 = 0.1113(10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.14/14.82 (DPS 0.05, correction to last Q estimated)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.21/9.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.91 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1338, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/3.73 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/ (DPS 0.14)

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