KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	37,342,946,575 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(6.82-0.109)/0.4556 = 14.73 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.83+0.109 = 6.94 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.4556, DPS 0.109)
Decision	BUY if stock price strong sustain above 6.86 or wait rebound at lower price as long as continue uptrend above SMA50
Comment	Revenue increased 6.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.3%, eps decreased 78% but turnover from loss than preceding year corresponding quarter 240.6%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and still got more than enough cash generated from financing to cover all other expenses, lower liquidity ratio but still indicate good financial strength, higher gearing ratio but was better financial leverage compared to recent year, all collection/repayment is good, benefit from lower operating expenses due to coal price decreasing and reduced in use of alternative fuels, affecting by strengthening of USD and Yen against Ringgit
First Support Price	6.6
Second Support Price	6.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Jupiter Target Price	6.84 (2012-03-13)
RHB Target Price	7.6 (2012-04-12)
MIDF Target Price	7.5 (2012-04-13)
ZJ Target Price	7.2 (2012-04-23)
Alliance Target Price	8.05 (2012-07-20)
AMMB Target Price	7.98 (2012-07-20)
CIMB Target Price	7.98 (2012-07-20)
HLG Target Price	8.3 (2012-07-20)
HwangDBS Target Price	7 (2012-07-20)
Kenanga Target Price	7.9 (2012-07-20)
Maybank Target Price	7.9 (2012-07-20)
OSK Target Price	7.57 (2012-07-20)
TA Target Price	8.32 (2012-07-20)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	8.30%
Dividend Yield	1.60%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	11.81%
Net Profit Margin	9.89%
Tax Rate	30.54%
Asset Turnover	0.4087
Net Asset Value Per Share	6.48
Net Tangible Asset per share	6.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.04
Cash Per Share	1.67
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5121
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.2056
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.0257
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.4586
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5922
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.6%
Days to sell the inventory	32
Days to collect the receivables	107
Days to pay the payables	79

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	6.719 (Uptrend 3 days)
SMA 50	6.604 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	6.51 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	6.138 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.049083 ( 0.003394 )
Signal (9)	0.044387 ( 0.001174 )
MACD Histogram	0.004696 (Bullish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	6.915
Bolinger Lower Band	6.523

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to an increase in sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and the tariff increase of 7.1% on 1 June 2011

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to the alternate fuel cost differential compensation of RM2,823.8 million offset by strengthening of Japanese Yen and the US Dollar against Ringgit Malaysia resulted in a translation loss of RM533.1 million as compared to a gain of RM60.0 million

- Lower pbt than FY12Q2 mainly due to the weakening Ringgit in Q3 FY2012, compared to the US Dollar and Japanese Yen resulted foreign translation loss of RM533.1 million as compared to RM628.4 million of gain in FY12Q2 although received RM777.8 million compensation compared to RM367.4 million in FY12Q2

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 35554200*0.07/5462133 = 0.4556, estimate PE on current price 6.82 = 14.73(DPS 0.109)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 35162500*0.1/5457914 = 0.6442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.32/9.16 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.2 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)