KLCI Stock - DIALOG / 7277 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,775,542,781 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.4-0.029)/0.0812 = 29.20 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.40+0.029 = 2.42 (PE 29.5, EPS 0.0812, DPS 0.029)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price strong sustain above SMA20 and SMA50 with MACD bullish trend start
Comment	Revenue increased 17.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.5%, eps decreased 16.3% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.8%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and also enough cash from financing to cover investing activities, margin decreasing, higher liquidity ratio and was indicate strong financial strength, lower gearing ratio and was a lot better of financial leverage compared to recent year, all collection/repayment period was good, benefit from Pengerang project
First Support Price	2.38
Second Support Price	2.3
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	2.8 (2012-02-15)
OSK Target Price	2.99 (2012-05-11)
Maybank Target Price	3.05 (2012-06-14)
AMMB Target Price	2.85 (2012-06-25)
CIMB Target Price	2.93 (2012-06-25)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.95 (2012-06-25)
Kenanga Target Price	3.09 (2012-06-26)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	29.31%
Dividend Yield	1.21%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	10.30%
Net Profit Margin	13.33%
Tax Rate	19.52%
Asset Turnover	0.8186
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.52
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.35
Cash Per Share	0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.6373
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.4359
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.5069
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5363
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3407
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	44.8%
Days to sell the inventory	23
Days to collect the receivables	92
Days to pay the payables	95

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.378 (Uptrend 9 days)
SMA 50	2.355 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	2.289 (Same)
SMA 200	2.277 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.010309 ( 0.00041 )
Signal (9)	0.012382 ( 0.000518 )
MACD Histogram	0.002073 (Bearish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.444
Bolinger Lower Band	2.312

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to consolidation of the revenue of the newly acquired fabrication and multi-disciplined engineering company, Fitzroy Engineering Group Limited, based in New Zealand. In addition, contribution from Malaysia and Asia operation such as Brunei, Thailand, Middle East and China, also increased significantly mainly due to higher revenue of Specialist Products & Services recorded

- Singapore operation had however registered lower revenue mainly affected by lesser works undertaken for its engineering & construction and plant maintenance activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1215186*0.15/2243624 = 0.0812, estimate PE on current price 2.4 = 29.2(DPS 0.029)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 693386*0.24/1993555 = 0.0835, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.57/25.5 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.32/21.37 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4*1.2 = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.43/16.21 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0183+0.0193)*2*1.2 = 0.0902, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.59/24.05 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0183+0.0146)*2*1.05 = 0.0691, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.77/30.38 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0169*4*1.05 = 0.071(ROE 6% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.82/19.14 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0146*4*1.05 = 0.0613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.95 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0162*4*1.05 = 0.068(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.16 (DPS 0.037)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/11.5 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0193*4 = 0.0772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.83/15.73 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0659*1.1 = 0.0725, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/15.64 (DPS 0.036)

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