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Monday, May 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,013,856,240 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.74-0.026)/0.1487 = 11.53 (Moderate)
Target Price2.08+0.026 = 2.11 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1487, DPS 0.026)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 17.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.8%, eps decreased 19.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, moderate gearing ratio, receivables and payables periods are high
First Support Price1.63
Second Support Price1.54
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price2.3 (2011-01-25)
AMMB Target Price2.3 (2011-05-24)
HLG Target Price2.44 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price2.3 (2011-05-26)
OSK Target Price2.5 (2011-05-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity23.03%
Dividend Yield1.38%
Profit Margin19.04%
Tax Rate24.92%
Asset Turnover0.8552
Net Asset Value Per Share0.65
Net Tangible Asset per share0.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.62
Cash Per Share0.22
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8072
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6415
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.528
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.687
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4071
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale36.2%
Days to sell the inventory34
Days to collect the receivables182
Days to pay the payables197

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1533*0.97 = 0.1487, estimate PE on current price 1.74 = 11.53(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0697*2*1.1 = 0.1533, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.49/11.05 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.08/11.99 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

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