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Monday, May 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTL / 4677 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)15,027,342,380 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.58-0.1)/0.1053 = 14.06 (Moderate)
Target Price1.68+0.1 = 1.78 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.1053, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8%, eps increased 90.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, construction and management services and others division getting lower revenue, IT division reported loss
First Support Price1.55
Second Support Price1.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.20%
Dividend Yield6.33%
Profit Margin14.77%
Tax Rate23.03%
Asset Turnover0.3732
Net Asset Value Per Share5.65
Net Tangible Asset per share3.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.52
Cash Per Share7.26
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4707
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3501
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0567
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.4615
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.743
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale32.9%
Days to sell the inventory36
Days to collect the receivables71
Days to pay the payables86

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The decrease in pbt is mainly due to a one-ff fee income received in the preceding year corresponding quarter

- The increase in revenue and pbt was substantially due to the better performance of its utilities and cement businesses and higher profit recognition from its offshore property development activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2632*2 = 0.5264, estimate PE on current price 1.58 = 14.06(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1304*4*1.05 = 0.5477(average eps 0.1304; 5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.41/12.69 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1162*1.15*4 = 0.5345, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.9/13.55 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.16/14.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1162*4 = 0.4648, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.13/15.01 (DPS 0.075)

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