KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,796,365,344 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.82-0.76)/0.2451 = 12.48 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.19+0.76 = 3.95 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.2451, DPS 0.76)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 3.9
Comment	Revenue increased 11% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.7%, eps decreased 25.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.9%, cash generated from operating enough to cover dividend but investing expenses spent 6.7% of Group cash, weaker liquidity ratio but still at strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	3.65
Second Support Price	3.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price

3.75 (2011-02-23)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	6.20%
Dividend Yield	19.90%
Profit Margin	17.38%
Tax Rate	42.66%
Asset Turnover	0.4297
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.91
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.09
Cash Per Share	1.74
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.2044
Liquidity Quick Ratio	5.1692
Liquidity Cash Ratio	3.9964
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1368
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1201
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	95.5%
Days to sell the inventory	3
Days to collect the receivables	90
Days to pay the payables	96

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Port operations record a decrease of 1.3% against the figure for the same quarter last year. This was a result of lower container volume handled during the reporting quarter. Throughput
registered during the second quarter was 841,763 TEUs, a decrease of 4.3% compared to the throughput for the corresponding period last year of 879,610 TEUs. The year-to-date throughput achieved is 1,603,404 TEUs, a decrease of 3.4% compared against 1,659,477 TEUs corresponding period last year

- The logistics subsidiary contributed RM61.5 million towards the current quarter
revenue representing an increase of 21.0% compared against the figure for the
corresponding quarter last year of RM50.8 million. The increased in revenue was
mainly from its warehousing and forwarding activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate PE on current price 3.82 = 12.48(DPS 0.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/11.47 (DPS 0.69)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2922*0.95 = 0.2776(due to unknown reason profit dropped), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.46/9 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3408*0.95 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/10.01 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1623*2*1.05 = 0.3408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.04/9.65 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.4/8.34 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

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