Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to disruptions in Toyota vehicle production following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and lower sales of Perodua. Longer lead time in new vehicle registration arising from the amendments to the Hire Purchase Act
- Lower pbt due to lower sales and unfavourable movements in fair value of hedging instruments and a quoted investment also contributed to the profit shortfall
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate PE on current price 7.19 = 14.44(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)
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| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 8,400,033,371 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.50 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (7.19-0.165)/0.4864 = 14.44 (High) |
| Target Price | 6.81+0.165 = 6.97 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4864, DPS 0.165) |
| Decision | Not interested unless stock price sustain above 7.4 |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 1.7% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.5%, eps decreased 13.8% and also lower than preceding year coorresponding quarter 39.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, profit from automotive division dropped 10% and O&G still loss |
| First Support Price | 7.1 |
| Second Support Price | 6.75 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| BIMB Target Price | 8.11 (2011-01-13) |
| OSK Target Price | 6.6 (2011-06-16) |
| CIMB Target Price | 8 (2011-07-19) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 8.55 (2011-07-19) |
| Maybank Target Price | 7.2 (2011-07-19) |
| AMMB Target Price | 6.5 (2011-07-29) |
| ECM Target Price | 8.16 (2011-08-22) |
| Kenanga Target Price | 7.06 (2011-08-22) |
| TA Target Price | 6.36 (2011-08-22) |
| MIDF Target Price | 7 (2011-08-23) |
| RHB Target Price | 7.35 (2011-09-07) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 8.29% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.17% |
| Profit Margin | 9.85% |
| Tax Rate | 28.60% |
| Asset Turnover | 1.2671 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 3.67 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 3.45 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 2.09 |
| Cash Per Share | 2.21 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.9271 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.434 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.9896 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 1.0877 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.4566 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 18.7% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 39 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 32 |
| Days to pay the payables | 54 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to disruptions in Toyota vehicle production following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and lower sales of Perodua. Longer lead time in new vehicle registration arising from the amendments to the Hire Purchase Act
- Lower pbt due to lower sales and unfavourable movements in fair value of hedging instruments and a quoted investment also contributed to the profit shortfall
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate PE on current price 7.19 = 14.44(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)
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