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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTL / 4677 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)13,160,131,936 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.38-0.04)/0.1231 = 10.89 (Moderate)
Target Price1.85+0.04 = 1.89 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.1231, DPS 0.04)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above 1.36
Comment
Revenue increased 27.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.9%, eps decreased 2.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 194.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, high profit mainly contribute from Utilities & Cement division
First Support Price1.35
Second Support Price1.29
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.42%
Dividend Yield1.45%
Profit Margin10.65%
Tax Rate13.35%
Asset Turnover0.3862
Net Asset Value Per Share1.15
Net Tangible Asset per share0.64
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.08
Cash Per Share1.46
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4575
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3637
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.021
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.4242
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7385
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.9%
Days to sell the inventory28
Days to collect the receivables82
Days to pay the payables85

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly attributable to better performance from the utilities group

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1172*1.05 = 0.1231, estimate PE on current price 1.38 = 10.89(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2632*2 = 0.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.29/11.11 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1304*4*1.05 = 0.5477(average eps 0.1304; 5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.41/12.69 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1162*1.15*4 = 0.5345, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.9/13.55 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.16/14.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1162*4 = 0.4648, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.13/15.01 (DPS 0.075)

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