Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size) | 7,070,721,469 (Very Large) |
Par Value | RM 1.00 |
My Analysis
Forecast P/E now | (19.5-0.47)/0.5234 = 36.36 (High) |
Target Price | 10.99+0.47 = 11.46 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.5234, DPS 0.47) |
Decision | Not interested unless pbt increase more which can enough to cover good dividend rate or base on technical analysis which stock price continue strong sustain above SMA50 |
Comment | Revenue increased 22.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding period 1.6%, eps decreased 51.8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 33.2% of Group cash to cover other expenses, margin decreasing to low level, liquidity ratio indicate financial strength is weakeaning but still acceptable level, higher gearing ratio indicate more leverage to generate more income in the future by more investment and the current ratio still not worry by lender, all accounting of turnover period is good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand still strong |
First Support Price | 19.2 |
Second Support Price | 17.8 |
Risk Rating | HIGH |
Research House
MIDF Target Price | 14 (2012-02-08) |
AMMB Target Price | 18.1 (2012-08-08) |
CIMB Target Price | 13.4 (2012-08-08) |
Maybank Target Price | 20.79 (2012-08-08) |
TA Target Price | 18.22 (2012-08-08) |
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity | 16.54% |
Dividend Yield | 2.41% |
Gross Profit Margin | - |
Operating Profit Margin | 6.23% |
Net Profit Margin | 6.08% |
Tax Rate | 5.26% |
Asset Turnover | 1.2787 |
Net Asset Value Per Share | 4.03 |
Net Tangible Asset per share | 3.66 |
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 5.56 |
Cash Per Share | 0.53 |
Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.3253 |
Liquidity Quick Ratio | 0.8356 |
Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.1995 |
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.8001 |
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.4444 |
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 9.4% |
Days to sell the inventory | 55 |
Days to collect the receivables | 61 |
Days to pay the payables | 86 |
Technical Analysis
SMA 10 | 19.56 (Downtrend) |
SMA 20 | 19.843 (Downtrend 8 days) |
SMA 50 | 19.283 (Uptrend) |
SMA 100 | 18.735 (Uptrend) |
SMA 200 | 18.199 (Uptrend) |
MACD (26d/12d) | -0.025559 ( 0.006648 ) |
Signal (9) | 0.086048 ( 0.027902 ) |
MACD Histogram | 0.111607 (Bearish trend 20 days) |
Bolinger Upper Band | 20.719 |
Bolinger Lower Band | 18.967 |
My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to Dairies Thailand well executed marketing activities in conjunction with the resumption of production in Rojana pent-up demand from the consumer and trade
- Lower pbt mainly attributable to the absense of Coca-Cola contribution, a restructuring charge of RM8.3 million incurred by the soft drinks division as part of its on-going rationalisation exercise to improve productivity, accelerated depreciation on PJ factory building and higher marketing expenses in Thailand offset by reversal of provision for compensation of RM5 million
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1462367*0.13/363226 = 0.5234, estimate PE on current price 19.5 = 36.36(DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 1478221*0.12/362737 = 0.489, estimate highest/lowest PE = 43.07/33.46 (DPS 0.44)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1597694*0.11/362592 = 0.4847, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.72/33.36 (DPS 0.43)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2151*4*0.95 = 0.8174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.18/19.78 (DPS 0.97)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.3+0.2151)*2*0.7 = 0.7211, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.64/21.43 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3*4 = 1.2(exclude RM53 million from sale of property income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.02/14.52 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2*4 = 0.8(around 5% ROE), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.09/18.07 (DPS 0.545)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.875*0.95 = 0.8313, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.58/15.82 (DPS 1.645)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.8236(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/15.85 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0072(10% grow from 0.4578*2), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.43/10.18 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.961(10% grow from 0.2184*4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.06/10.44 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.8195, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.58/12.04 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.8, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.79/11.29 (DPS 0.47)
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1 comment:
Hi
Could you tell me which how you make the flash? I means the stock price you put at top of this page.
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