KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,861,123,924 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.22-0.11)/0.2984 = 7.07 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.54+0.11 = 2.65 (PE 8.5, EPS 0.2984, DPS 0.11)
Decision	BUY if stock price strong sustain above SMA20 or wait next uptrend above SMA100
Comment	Revenue decreased 0.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.4%, eps increased 0.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 18.3% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, maintaine high margin, liquidity ratio indicate financial strength still good although is weakening recently, high gearing ratio with high profit indicate great deal of leverage but increase concern on lender, all accounting of collection or repayment period is still manageable , higher property development cost can indicate property business still good prospects
First Support Price	2.15
Second Support Price	2.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HLG Target Price	2.37 (2012-05-29)
OSK Target Price	2.69 (2012-05-29)
AMMB Target Price	3.6 (2012-08-17)
CIMB Target Price	2.71 (2012-08-17)
Maybank Target Price	2.38 (2012-08-17)
MIDF Target Price	2.85 (2012-08-17)
TA Target Price	2.77 (2012-08-17)
Kenanga Target Price	2.4 (2012-09-13)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	20.02%
Dividend Yield	4.95%
Gross Profit Margin	28.57%
Operating Profit Margin	17.62%
Net Profit Margin	18.22%
Tax Rate	27.47%
Asset Turnover	0.5656
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.34
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.33
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.79
Cash Per Share	0.66
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.6497
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.0173
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5198
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.7363
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.632
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	100.3%
Days to sell the inventory	502
Days to collect the receivables	109
Days to pay the payables	264

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	2.214 (Downtrend)
SMA 20	2.256 (Downtrend 9 days)
SMA 50	2.157 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	2.024 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.969 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.00224 ( 0.000659 )
Signal (9)	0.017797 ( 0.005009 )
MACD Histogram	0.020037 (Bearish trend 19 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.411
Bolinger Lower Band	2.101

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- As at 30 June 2012, the Group’s remaining undeveloped land was 1,495 acres and approximately RM18.0 billion in total remaining GDV and unbilled sales

- Plastics segment continued to contribute positively to group revenue and profit. Whilst revenue grew marginally by 1%, profit margin was affected by foreign exchange difference and higher staff costs as a result of minimum wage ruling in Indonesia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 1142523*0.22/842207 = 0.2984, estimate PE on current price 2.22 = 7.07(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1151402*0.21/844481 = 0.2863, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.36/6.51 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1088489*0.18/853767 = 0.2295, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.73 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/8.41 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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