KLCI Stock - NAIM / 5073 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	462,500,000 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.85-0.06)/0.2372 = 7.55 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.25+0.06 = 2.31 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.2372, DPS 0.06)
Decision	BUY if stock price strong sustain and start uptrend above 1.8
Comment	Revenue increased 28.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16.5%, eps increased 94.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 63%, cash generated from investing enough to cover financing expenses and got borrowings to cover operating and investing expenses, gross margin increasing to satisfactory level, liquidity ratio indicate firm financial healthy, gearing ratio indicate financial leverage strength is getting weaker, all accounting of collection or repayment period still not satisfactory, all segment business recovered
First Support Price	1.8
Second Support Price	1.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.94 (2012-08-01)
Jupiter Target Price	2.14 (2012-08-02)
AMMB Target Price	2.95 (2012-09-03)
Kenanga Target Price	2.94 (2012-09-03)
MIDF Target Price	3.01 (2012-09-03)
TA Target Price	3.17 (2012-09-03)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.30%
Dividend Yield	3.24%
Gross Profit Margin	24.57%
Operating Profit Margin	19.35%
Net Profit Margin	30.48%
Tax Rate	10.64%
Asset Turnover	0.2951
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.31
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.57
Cash Per Share	0.93
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.2435
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.7253
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.4021
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.7045
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4077
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	166.8%
Days to sell the inventory	271
Days to collect the receivables	315
Days to pay the payables	172

Technical Analysis

SMA 10	1.865 (Uptrend)
SMA 20	1.872 (Uptrend 29 days)
SMA 50	1.808 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.82 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.843 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.014255 ( 0.002496 )
Signal (9)	0.017686 ( 0.000858 )
MACD Histogram	0.003431 (Bearish trend 13 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	1.981
Bolinger Lower Band	1.763

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt from Property segment mainly contributed by the higher units of properties sold from existing properties under construction with sales and certain high-margin existing construction projects being substantially completed offset by loss in other segment mainly attributable to the quarry and premix operations in Malaysia and Fiji which reported lower sales and were running below capacity owing to reduced construction activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 802882*0.07/236944 = 0.2372, estimate PE on current price 1.85 = 7.55(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 763498*0.065/236944 = 0.2094, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/7.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 763498*0.06/236944 = 0.1933, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.69/8.33 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0433*4 = 0.1732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.34/8.43 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0516+0.043)*2 = 0.1892(exclude RM10 million disposal gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/7.93 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4023*0.85 = 0.342(0.4023 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.19/5.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0921*4*0.9 = 0.3316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2587*2*0.9 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.16/6.79 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1619*2*1.1 = 0.3562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2988 (10% drop from 0.332, due to profit decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.28/8.57 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0793*4 = 0.3172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.41/8.89 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0902*4 = 0.3608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.87/6.59 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0955*4 = 0.382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.73 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4 = 0.2672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.18/6.4 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1118*4 = 0.4472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.07/2.17 (DPS 0.13)

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