KLCI Stock - DIALOG / 7277 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 1980531073*1.1 = 2,178,584,180.30 (Large)
NTA per share : (475389-8437)/1969522 = 0.24
P/BV : 1.1/0.24 = 4.5833
Forecast P/E now : (1.1-0.031)/0.0613 = 17.44 (Moderate)
ROE : 22.76% (High)
DY : 0.031/1.1*100 = 2.82% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.2777+1.4597+1.3323+0.9934)/4 = 1.2658 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 577753/309667 = 1.8657 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (290857+272715)/2/(1139146/365) = 90 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, good cash flow, above moderate debt but slightly decreased, navps decreasing, O&G sector recovery
Technical Support Price : 1.05
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 1.47 (20 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-

- The Group closed the financial year ended 30 June 2010 with a revenue inceased by 3.1% and profits after tax rose by 20.7% from a year ago

- The outstanding financial results were contributed by the plant maintenance division which saw
significant work performed and completed during the financial year both in Malaysia and Singapore. The commencement of operation by Langsat Terminal (One) Sdn Bhd in Tanjung Langsat, Johor in September 2009 for its Phase 1 and in April 2010 for its Phase 2, had also contributed positively to the Group’s financial results in the current financial year

- The Group’s revenue and profits after tax for the current financial quarter were down by 24% and 8% respectively when compared to the same corresponding period last year. This was following the completion of some engineering & construction works during the financial quarter

- The Group’s revenue and profits before tax for the current financial quarter were down by 4% and 6% respectively when compared to the preceding financial quarter. This was following the completion of some engineering & construction works during the financial quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0146*4*1.05 = 0.0613, estimate PE on current price 1.1 = 17.44(DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0162*4*1.05 = 0.068(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.16 (DPS 0.037)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/11.5 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0193*4 = 0.0772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.83/15.73 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0659*1.1 = 0.0725, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/15.64 (DPS 0.036)

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