KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 549213002*4.88 = 2,680,159,449.76 (Large)
NTA per share : (5411559-29008-678979)/549213 = 8.56
P/BV : 4.88/8.56 = 0.5701
Forecast P/E now : (4.88-0.2)/0.4657 = 10.05 (High)
ROE : 4.99% (Low)
DY : 0.2/4.88*100 = 4.1% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.1642+0.9126+0.8418)/3 = 0.9729 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 3753340/1943322 = 1.9314 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (777802+935938)/2/(8670821/365) = 36 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 4.66+0.2 = 4.86 (PE 10, EPS 0.4657, DPS 0.2)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.4
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing but slow down, strong cash, below moderate debt and decreasing, navps increasing, new model coming soon, interest rate increase, fuel price hike, merger possibility
Technical Support Price : 4.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 5.67 (30 Aug 10)

My study based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- The Group achieved a 64.1% higher in profit before tax compared to the corresponding period last year. Higher sales volume and improved profit margins from better mix largely accounted for the improved performance

- Market sentiments improved, PROTON's domestic sales volume grew by 17% arising from demands for the 3 core models, Saga, Persona and Exora

- Group profit before taxation was 14% better than the immediate preceding quarter which included additional provision for inventory write-down and doubtful debts, as well as write-back of impairment loss. Operationally without the effect of the provision and write-back, the operation profit at RM75 million is an improvement of 40% compared to the previous quarter

- The improved performance in the current quarter is largely attributable to higher sales volume and improved margins

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate PE on current price 4.88 = 10.05(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

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