KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 544697101*3.4= 1,851,970,143.40 (Medium)
NTA per share : (687977-123334)/576344 = 0.98
P/BV : 3.4/0.98 = 3.4694
Forecast P/E now : (3.4-0.13)/0.2226 = 14.69 (High)
ROE : 15.56% (Moderate)
DY : 0.13/3.4*100 = 3.82% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.9897+1.0183+0.9756)/3 = 0.9945 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 585447/416992 = 1.404 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (258718+221004)/2/(1523132/365) = 57 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.12+0.13 = 3.25 (EPS 0.2226, PE 14, DPS 0.13)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price less than 3.3
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, cash increased from bank borrowing, above moderate debt and slightly increased, navps slightly increased, medical center increasing
Technical Support Price : 2.7, 2.5
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 4.62 (27 Jul 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The profit before taxation for the current quarter has increased by 15.4% from the corresponding quarter 2009. The increase is in line with the increase in revenue of the hospitals

- The profit before taxation for the current quarter increased by 8.7% as compared to preceding quarter. The increase in the net profit before tax is in line with the increase in revenue and contribution from the hospitals

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0506*4*1.1 = 0.2226, estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 14.69(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/13.02 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/10.9 (DPS 0.2 or 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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