KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 4463793103*9 = 40,174,137,927 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (23427824-938901)/4460794 = 5.04
P/BV : 9/5.04 = 1.7857
Forecast P/E now : (9-0.35)/0.168 = 51.49 (Very High)
ROE : 3.91% (Low)
DY : 0.35/9*100 = 3.89% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 years) : (0.3228+0.4315+0.4412)/3 = 0.3985 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 9993465/5313855 = 1.8806 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1579168+2787683)/2/(13152152/365) = 60 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue slightly slow down, profit still low if exclude major other income, strong cash, above moderate debt and slightly increase, navps decreased due to share increased
Technical Support Price : 8.2
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 10 (23 Aug 2010)

My study based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-

- The Group profit before taxation was 72.3% higher than the corresponding quarter's profit. The increase was mainly from improved performance in the restructured Liner business and increased profitability in Heavy Engineering business

- The Group profit before taxation was 68.9% higher than (excluding gain on disposal of ships totalling RM7.1 million) preceding quarter. The higher profit achieved in this quarter arose mainly from improved performance in the restructured Liner business

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.04(exclude 257 million from other income)*4*1.05 = 0.168, estimate PE on current price 9 = 51.49(DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0509*4 = 0.2036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42.98/37.77 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 48.03/40.65 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4 = 0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4 = 0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

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