KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,075,357,640 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(10.18-0.55)/0.6604 = 14.58 (Moderate)
Target Price	10.57+0.55 = 11.12 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.6604, DPS 0.55)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue got significant increase
Comment	Revenue decreased 0.9% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing also but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13%, eps decreased 40.7% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	10.0
Second Support Price	9.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

UOB Target Price	10.3 (2011-02-21)
AMMB Target Price	9.9 (2011-05-06)
Maybank Target Price	11.3 (2011-05-06)
TA Target Price	10.3 (2011-05-06)
CIMB Target Price	11.5 (2011-08-05)
Affin Target Price	11.92 (2011-08-08)
OSK Target Price	13.58 (2011-08-09)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	35.11%
Dividend Yield	5.30%
Profit Margin	10.82%
Tax Rate	22.93%
Asset Turnover	2.1729
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.71
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.68
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	6.46
Cash Per Share	0.6
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.3246
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.8434
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.3226
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3262
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.246
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	21.2%
Days to sell the inventory	19
Days to collect the receivables	50
Days to pay the payables	39

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 mainly driven by price, sales mix and stronger quarter four activities however got lower pbt mainly due to provisions made for route to market restructuring

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly driven by provisions made for route to market restructuring and the timing of marketing activity

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6004*1.1 = 0.6604, estimate PE on current price 10.18 = 14.58(DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6223*1.1 = 0.6845, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/13.88 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6139*0.95 = 0.5832, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.99/14.92 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.545, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.36/15.32 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5054*1.05 = 0.5307 (5% grow from 0.5054, due to next year no more world cup), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.81/14.23 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/12.55 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

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