KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 5

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	17,266,230,520 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(17.38-0.8)/0.8802 = 18.84 (High)
Target Price	14.08+0.8 = 14.88 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.8802, DPS 0.8)
Decision	Not interested unless crude oil price back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 18.1% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q4 (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.2%), eps decreased 8.7% and was second quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.5%, no cash generated from operating and used 11.6% of Group cash to cover others expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, affect by crude oil price decreasing
First Support Price	16.0
Second Support Price	15.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price	14.4 (2011-02-17)
HwangDBS Target Price	12.75 (2011-05-25)
CIMB Target Price	21.6 (2011-08-11)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	4.14%
Dividend Yield	4.60%
Profit Margin	3.86%
Tax Rate	27.61%
Asset Turnover	2.7914
Net Asset Value Per Share	5.04
Net Tangible Asset per share	5.04
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.28
Cash Per Share	0.91
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3516
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.0851
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2379
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.8076
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4449
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	5.3%
Days to sell the inventory	15
Days to collect the receivables	46
Days to pay the payables	56

My notes based on 2011 quarter 5 report (number in '000):-
- The increases of revenue resulted from higher product average selling prices and higher sales volume

- Higher pbt due to higher gross profit and vice versa

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.2101+0.23)*2 = 0.8802, estimate PE on current price 17.38 = 18.84(DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.23*4*1.05 = 0.966, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.69/15.06 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.79/11.98 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

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