KLCI Stock - BJTOTO / 1562 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,647,305,700 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.18-0.22)/0.2936 = 13.49 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.70+0.22 = 4.92 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2936, DPS 0.22)
Decision	BUY if stock price of volume queue to sell above 4.2 is low
Comment	Revenue decreased 6.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.2%, eps decreased 11.6% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.1%, cash generated from operating and investing not enough to cover financing activities hence spent 3.1% of Group cash to cover, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from very high to high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	4.05
Second Support Price	3.9
Risk Rating	LOW

Research House

AMMB Target Price	4.7 (2011-06-21)
CIMB Target Price	4.75 (2011-06-21)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.25 (2011-06-21)
RHB Target Price	5.15 (2011-06-21)
TA Target Price	4.92 (2011-06-21)
Maybank Target Price	4.85 (2011-09-07)
ECM Target Price	5.2 (2011-09-22)
HLG Target Price	4.98 (2011-09-22)
OSK Target Price	4.72 (2011-09-29)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	81.59%
Dividend Yield	5.02%
Profit Margin	15.38%
Tax Rate	27.93%
Asset Turnover	2.3662
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.38
Net Tangible Asset per share	-0.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	-43.5
Cash Per Share	0.33
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.5182
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4975
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1942
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.817
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6334
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	5.5%
Days to sell the inventory	1
Days to collect the receivables	12
Days to pay the payables	42

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 mainly attributed to the higher pre-tax profit contributed by Sports Toto as explained in the ensuing paragraph coupled with higher pre-tax profit reported by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group and lower prize payout corresponding

- The decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit than FY11Q4 was mainly due to lower revenue and pre-tax profit recorded by Sports Toto because preceding quarter recording seasonally high sales during the Chinese Lunar New Year festive season during the month of February 2011 coupled with the current quarter having less number of draws in current quarter and higher prize payout

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0689+0.0779)*2 = 0.2936, estimate PE on current price 4.52 = 13.49(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0779*4 = 0.3116, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/12.2 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0859+0.0487)*2*1.05 = 0.2827, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.53/13.76 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.27/18.97 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)

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