KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,022,982,132 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.4-0.12)/0.2254 = 14.55 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.61+0.12 = 3.73 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2254, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price next uptrend start above 3
Comment	Revenue increased 30.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.4%, eps increased 7.9% and was sixth consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.3%), no cash generated from operating after deduct assets inceased if not will be enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 8.6% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher property development cost can indicate got new property project
First Support Price	3.0
Second Support Price	2.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	4.68 (2011-03-23)
Kenanga Target Price	4.12 (2011-03-25)
AMMB Target Price	3.82 (2011-06-14)
UOB Target Price	4.4 (2011-06-20)
CIMB Target Price	5.63 (2011-06-24)
OSK Target Price	4.8 (2011-06-24)
TA Target Price	4.32 (2011-06-24)
HwangDBS Target Price	5.1 (2011-08-09)
Maybank Target Price	4.1 (2011-09-12)
ECM Target Price	2.94 (2011-09-30)
HLG Target Price	3.81 (2011-09-30)
RHB Target Price	3.41 (2011-10-03)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	10.94%
Dividend Yield	3.53%
Profit Margin	18.64%
Tax Rate	16.37%
Asset Turnover	0.354
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.72
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.67
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.72
Cash Per Share	0.64
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1605
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5377
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6386
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.994
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4853
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	94.2%
Days to sell the inventory	211
Days to collect the receivables	263
Days to pay the payables	142

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 mainly resulted from higher contributions from all divisions

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to lower contributions from all segment offset by higher profit from associated company

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 14.55(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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