KLCI Stock - MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	436,788,177 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.07-0.035)/0.1142 = 9.06 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.14+0.035 = 1.18 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1142, DPS 0.035)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain above 1 when MACD downtrend
Comment	Revenue increased 30.1% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.8%, eps decreased 23.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.3%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from low to weak level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio also high, all division growth
First Support Price	1.0
Second Support Price	0.9
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

CIMB Target Price	1.83 (2011-08-10)
Kencana Target Price	1.5 (2011-10-03)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.88%
Dividend Yield	3.27%
Profit Margin	4.54%
Tax Rate	25.29%
Asset Turnover	0.5889
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.19
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.16
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.96
Cash Per Share	0.81
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.9863
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.8834
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1826
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	4.356
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7793
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-1.5%
Days to sell the inventory	44
Days to collect the receivables	284
Days to pay the payables	274

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY10Q2 mainly due to better results from the Infrastructure Construction Division and the Cranes Division

- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 main reason is because of normal low season with lesser passenger arrivals for the Cambodia Airports for the second quarter of the year

- As at 19 August 2011, the total outstanding secured order book in hand of the Group is RM3.08 billion, comprises of RM2.21 billion from Infrastructure Construction Division, RM675 million from Cranes Division and RM194 million from Shipyard Division. These outstanding secured order books will until 2014

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4*0.85 = 0.1142(~8% ROE), estimate PE on current price 1.07 = 9.06 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = (0.0438+0.0226)*2*1.05 = 0.1394, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.45/6.85 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0843*1.1 = 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/13.65 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0481*2 = 0.0962(although revenue decrease but offset by high tax rate), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.06/12.79
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0266*4 = 0.1064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/7.99
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0135*4 = 0.054, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/15.74
- No estimate for 2009 Q4 result
- No estimate for 2009 Q3 result
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0362*4 = 0.1448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.29/6.94 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.17/4.04 (DPS 0.025)

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