KLCI Stock - IJM / 3336 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	6,725,852,475 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.89-0.11)/0.3135 = 15.25 (Moderate)
Target Price	5.02+0.11 = 5.13 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.3135, DPS 0.11)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 5
Comment	Revenue decreased 1.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.8%, eps increased 653.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.7%, cash generated from operating not enough to fully cover financing expenses hence still generated cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, CPO price in downtrend, higher property development costs can indicate better property sales, lower receivables can indicate no new contract receive
First Support Price	4.8
Second Support Price	4.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price	6.35 (2011-01-03)
MIDF Target Price	6.48 (2011-02-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price	8 (2011-03-29)
RHB Target Price	6.16 (2011-05-09)
OSK Target Price	6.96 (2011-05-30)
CIMB Target Price	7.81 (2011-07-05)
Maybank Target Price	6.5 (2011-08-05)
UOB Target Price	6.3 (2011-08-15)
ECM Target Price	7.02 (2011-08-25)
HLG Target Price	6.61 (2011-08-25)
AMMB Target Price	7.71 (2011-09-12)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.7 (2011-09-14)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	5.28%
Dividend Yield	2.25%
Profit Margin	19.50%
Tax Rate	23.79%
Asset Turnover	0.2963
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.62
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.57
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.63
Cash Per Share	1.28
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.3619
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4482
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7043
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2104
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4812
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	92.0%
Days to sell the inventory	271
Days to collect the receivables	178
Days to pay the payables	187

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 attributable mainly to the Construction, Industry, Plantation and Infrastructure divisions and earnings growth in Construction and Industry divisions and higher margins in Plantation and Infrastructure divisions

- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 due to massive kitchen-sinking exercise undertaken in the immediate preceding quarter where provisions were made against contractual claims, recovery of receivables and project losses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0825*4*0.95 = 0.3135, estimate PE on current price 4.89 = 15.25(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1819*2*1.1 = 0.4002, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/13.17 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/16.87 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/15.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0662*4*1.05 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/17.3 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2484*0.9 = 0.2236 (10% drop, exclude foreign exchange gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.58/19.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0621*4 = 0.2484 (expecting revenue and profit recover hence no decrease on eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.53/17.43 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.13/16.55 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.271, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.13/15.68 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.53/16.15 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/12.44 (DPS 0.25)

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