KLCI Stock - 3A / 0012 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 369600019*1.83 = 676,368,034.77 (Medium)
NTA per share : 146804/369600 = 0.4
P/BV : 1.83/0.4 = 4.575 (High)
Forecast P/E now : (1.83-0.016)/0.0858 = 21.14 (High)
ROE : 17.06% (Moderate)
DY : 0.016/1.83*100 = 0.87% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.9638+1.0567+1.0242+0.9054)/4 = 0.9875 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 134382/54629 = 2.4599 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (61891+37584)/2/(218715/365) = 83 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit no more QbQ increase, negative net cash flow and increased CFF, moderate debt and increased, navps increased, raw material costs increased
Technical Support Price : 1.6
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- There is an increase of 26.3% in the turnover of the Group for the current quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter in the preceding year mainly due to better demand for the Group's products
- The Group's profit before taxation decrease 9.4% from preceding year corresponding quarter as a result of increase in raw material costs
- The Group's turnover in the current quarter is 7% lower than immediate preceding quarter. The reason is due to increase in raw material costs
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0286*3 = 0.0858(0.0286 is recent 2Q cum_eps, FYQ1-11 & FYQ2-11 to double as current), estimate PE on current price 1.83 = 21.14 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.076, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.89/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.05/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

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