KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 1140541232*6.25 = 7,128,382,700 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (3971892-268733)/1133984 = 3.27
P/BV : 0.785/0.84 = 0.9345
Forecast P/E now : (6.25-0.2)/0.4136 = 14.63 (High)
ROE : 8.7% (Low)
DY : 0.2/6.25*100 = 3.2% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.2413+1.5533+1.6146)/3 = 1.4697 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 4115146/1967075 = 2.092 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (930041+978831)/2/(11381308/365) = 30 days (Good)
My Target Price : 6.2+0.2 = 6.4 (PE 15, EPS 0.4136, DPS 0.2)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 6.1
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, good cash flow, above moderate debt but decreasing, navps increasing, WSP loss increased
Technical Support Price : 6.2
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 6.62 (15 Jul 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue for the first quarter ended 31st March 2010 was 29.1% higher than preceding year’s corresponding quarter. Strong economic growth and improved consumer and business confidence had resulted in higher demand for our Toyota vehicles, industrial and heavy equipment as well as automotive parts
- Group profit before taxation for the first quarter ended 31st March 2010 improved over the same quarter of 2009 by more than 100%, an increase of RM181.4 million. Improved margins from favourable model mix and higher sales volume achieved by our Automotive segment mainly contributed to the significant profit increase
- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicle sales of 70,550 units represented 47.9% of the total industry volume of 147,415 units reported by the Malaysian Automotive Association for the quarter ended 31st March 2010
- Group revenue for the first quarter ended 31st March 2010 was higher than the fourth quarter of 2009 by 2.1%. Greater demand for our heavy and industrial equipment mainly accounted for the revenue improvement
- Group profit before taxation for the first quarter ended 31st March 2010 was 28.6% above recorded in the fourth quarter of 2009. Improved margins achieved by our Automotive segment contributed to the higher profit
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate PE on current price 6.25 = 14.63(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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