KLCI Stock - BHIC / 8133 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 248457614*4.5 = 1,118,059,263 (Large)
NTA per share : 391876/248458 = 1.58
P/BV : 4.5/1.58 = 2.8481
Forecast P/E now : (4.5-0.06)/0.2798 = 15.87 (High)
ROE : 19.24% (Moderate)
DY : 0.06/4.5*100 = 1.33% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.76+1.0409+0.7877)/3 = 0.8629
Liquidity Ratio : 396148/234133 = 1.692 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (366142+209202)/2/(500671/365) = 209 days
My Target Price : 3.92 + 0.06 = 3.98 (PE 14, EPS 0.2798, DPS 0.06)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.8
My Comment : Revenue increased but profit slightly decreased, still negative net cash flow, cash increased from CFF, above moderate debt and increased, navps increasing, contract received increasing
Technical Support Price : 3.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- The Group recorded 18% lower revenue compared to the corresponding period ended 30 June 2009. Cost escalations resulting from delays in completing certain shipbuilding projects, coupled with a reduced contribution from associates, resulted in profit after taxation reducing by 6%
- The current quarter revenue was higher by 18% as compared to the first quarter of 2010. Profit before taxation registered for the current quarter represented a 5% decrease in earnings as compared to the results in the preceding quarter due to cost overruns in certain shipbuilding projects
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0636*1.1*4 = 0.2798 (10% increase due to many new contract received), estimate PE on current price 4.5 = 15.87 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0631*4 = 0.2524*0.9 = 0.2272 (10% drop from 0.2524), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.13/15.58 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/12.65 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)

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