KLCI Stock - CSCSTEL / 5094 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 380000000*1.8 = 684,000,000 (Moderate)
NTA per share : 783759/373200 = 2.1 (Decreased)
P/BV : 1.8/2.1 = 0.8571
Forecast P/E now : (1.8-0.2)/0.2642 = 6.06 (High)
ROE : 17.96% (Moderate)
DY : 0.2/1.8*100 = 11.11% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.1958+1.1581+1.4559)/3 = 1.2699 (High, decreased)
Liquidity Ratio : 614263/110481 = 5.5599 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (136652+80615)/2/(1118568/365) = 35 days (Good)
My Target Price : Not interested unless steel price increasing
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : World steel price decreasing, bad cash flow, low debt but increased, strong cash, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 1.6
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group achieved an increase of revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter of 87% and 236% respectively
- The better performance in revenue is driven by favourable selling prices and higher sales volume of our steel products. The improvement in revenue has increased the profit before tax as well
- The Group’s revenue has increased by 7.2% from preceding quarter. As a result, profit before tax increased by 7.4% from preceding quarter
- The better performances in revenue and profit before tax are driven by favourable selling prices of our steel products
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2936*0.9 = 0.2642 (10% decrease due to global steel price decreasing), estimate PE on current price 1.8 = 6.06 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2936 (maintained forecast eps due to lower margin), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.99/4.67 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (20% growth from 0.2442, world steel price increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.13/4.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/4.92 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/9.88 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/15.44

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