KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 93716875*2.56 = 239,915,200 (Small)
NTA per share : (166782-1291)/93717 = 1.77
P/BV : 2.56/1.77 = 1.4463
Forecast P/E now : (2.56-0.076)/0.2935 = 8.46 (Moderate)
ROE : 15.26% (Moderate)
DY : 0.076/2.56*100 = 2.97% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.1907+1.2007+1.1613)/3 = 1.1842 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 139087/60173 = 2.3115 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (77422+70769)/2/(297172/365) = 91 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.935+0.076 = 3.01 (PE 10, EPS 0.2935, DPS 0.076)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased from preceding year, good cash flow, below moderate debt, navps decreased, increased incorporated company, all operating segments show better result than preceding year, new retail at JB open in FY10Q4
Technical Support Price : 2.5
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter to June 2010, the Group’s pretax profit was recorded an increase of 40% over that achieved in the similar quarter last year. Second quarter revenue recorded an increase of 10% over the same period in 2009. For the first six months of year 2010, the Group recorded a pretax profit and revenue of 45% and 10% year-on-year growth
- The Group’s manufacturing division, Xepa-Soul Pattinson Malaysia Sdn Bhd, achieved 21% year-on-year revenue growth in the Malaysian private healthcare sector. Sales to retail pharmacies in Singapore were strong, and marketing activities in Vietnam were intensified so as to maintain growth momentum
- The wholesale, marketing and distribution division continued to sustain steady revenue growth, helped by strong sales of consumer healthcare products and new agency lines secured in the quarter. Margins were enhanced by a greater proportion of own brand products in the sales mix and careful control of operating expenses
- The Group’s associate company in China, Xiamen Maidiken Science and Technology Co Ltd, continued to return strong results, with year-on-year revenue growth of 37%, driven largely by increased market share in pharmaceutical distribution and improved performance of its chain retail pharmacy operations
- Profit before tax for the second quarter is 11% lower than that achieved in the immediate preceding quarter. This is because of lower second quarter revenue compared to the first, attributed to a moderated demand for the Group’s products following an exceptionally strong first quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate PE on current price 2.56 = 8.46(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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