KLCI Stock - AJIYA / 7609 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	138,447,642 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.0-0.06)/0.28 = 6.93 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.96+0.06 = 2.02 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.28, DPS 0.06)
Decision	NOT BUY unless price below 1.8
Comment	Revenue second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, neither got free nor positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio decreasing but still at high level now, below moderate gearing ratio, all accounting period are good, expanded operation to Thailand
First Support Price	2.0
Second Support Price	1.93
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price

2.48 (2011-01-17)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.06%
Dividend Yield	-
Profit Margin	7.08%
Tax Rate	7.26%
Asset Turnover	1.0606
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.86
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.73
Cash Per Share	0.5
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.5068
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.3426
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6445
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3028
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1926
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	40.8%
Days to sell the inventory	77
Days to collect the receivables	101
Days to pay the payables	46

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- For the quarter under review, the Group achieved a turnover of RM80.005 million, which is 1% higher compared to preceding year corresponding quarter of RM78.918 million. The increase was mainly due to better market sentiment

- The Group recorded a profit before tax of RM5.664 million for the current quarter compared to immediate preceding quarter of RM8.677 million. The decrease was due to lower turnover and lower profit margin of certain products for the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.07(average eps from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.28, estimate PE on current price 2 = 6.55
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.08(average eps)*4*0.95 = 0.304, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.84/6.38 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.19/5.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0816*4 = 0.3264+0.0163 = 0.3427 (5% grow from 0.3264 due to recovery from previous weak market), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.16/4.99 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.312(2% drop from 0.3184), estimate PE on current price 2.14 = 6.67(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.39/5.18 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.23, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.22 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/4.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.69/3.65 (DPS 0.06)

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