Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- As compared to the previous year corresponding quarter ended 31 October 2009, the Group recorded a decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit of 1.3% and 33.7% respectively mainly due to the results of Sports Toto Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("Sports Toto") as explained in the ensuing paragraph. However, the decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit were mitigated by the higher revenue and pre-tax profit contributed by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group
- Sports Toto, the principal subsidiary, recorded a decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit of 2.1% and 39.2% respectively as compared to previous year corresponding quarter. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the current quarter having lower number of draws as compared to the previous year corresponding quarter. The drop in pre-tax profit was mainly due to the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% with effect from 1 June 2010 coupled with higher prize payout compared to the previous year corresponding quarter
- As compared to the preceding quarter ended 31 July 2010, the Group registered an increase in revenue of 1.2% mainly due to higher revenue reported by Sports Toto and Berjaya Philippines Inc.. However, the Group recorded a marginal drop in pre-tax profit of 0.9% as compared to the preceding quarter. Sports Toto reported lower pre-tax profit as explained in the ensuing paragraph. However, the effect was mitigated by the higher pre-tax profit reported by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group in the current quarter and the preceding quarter reported higher Group finance costs
- Sports Toto registered a marginal increase in revenue of 0.8% despite the current quarter having lower number of draws compared to the preceding quarter. It however recorded a decrease in pre-tax profit of 11.5% as compared to the preceding quarter ended 31 July 2010. The decrease in pre-tax profit was mainly due to the three months effect of the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% with effect from 1 June 2010 as compared to two months effect in the preceding quarter as well as higher prize payout in the current quarter under review
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate PE on current price 4.18 = 19.66(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)
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| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 5,647,305,700 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.10 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (4.18-0.16)/0.2045 = 19.66 (High) |
| Target Price | 3.27+0.16 = 3.43 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2045, DPS 0.16) |
| Decision | NOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more |
| Comment | Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps increased but largely decreased from preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow increased but net cash flow decreased to left little positive net cash flow, low liquidity ratio, very high gearing ratio, all accounting period are good, other operation revenue increased and loss decreased, reduced betting prize payout |
| First Support Price | 4.1 |
| Second Support Price | 4.0 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| AMMB Target Price | 4.5 (2010-12-13) |
| CIMB Target Price | 4.67 (2010-12-13) |
| Credit Suisse Target Price | 4.3 (2010-12-13) |
| RHB Target Price | 4.5 (2010-12-13) |
| TA Target Price | 4.58 (2010-12-13) |
| ECM Target Price | 4.56 (2011-01-19) |
| OSK Target Price | 4.51 (2011-01-19) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 76.30% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.78% |
| Profit Margin | 11.56% |
| Tax Rate | 31.24% |
| Asset Turnover | 2.6578 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 0.27 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | -0.21 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | -19.67 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.2 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.2654 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.2444 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.7813 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 2.4197 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.6969 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 2.6% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 1 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 16 |
| Days to pay the payables | 39 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- As compared to the previous year corresponding quarter ended 31 October 2009, the Group recorded a decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit of 1.3% and 33.7% respectively mainly due to the results of Sports Toto Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("Sports Toto") as explained in the ensuing paragraph. However, the decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit were mitigated by the higher revenue and pre-tax profit contributed by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group
- Sports Toto, the principal subsidiary, recorded a decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit of 2.1% and 39.2% respectively as compared to previous year corresponding quarter. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the current quarter having lower number of draws as compared to the previous year corresponding quarter. The drop in pre-tax profit was mainly due to the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% with effect from 1 June 2010 coupled with higher prize payout compared to the previous year corresponding quarter
- As compared to the preceding quarter ended 31 July 2010, the Group registered an increase in revenue of 1.2% mainly due to higher revenue reported by Sports Toto and Berjaya Philippines Inc.. However, the Group recorded a marginal drop in pre-tax profit of 0.9% as compared to the preceding quarter. Sports Toto reported lower pre-tax profit as explained in the ensuing paragraph. However, the effect was mitigated by the higher pre-tax profit reported by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group in the current quarter and the preceding quarter reported higher Group finance costs
- Sports Toto registered a marginal increase in revenue of 0.8% despite the current quarter having lower number of draws compared to the preceding quarter. It however recorded a decrease in pre-tax profit of 11.5% as compared to the preceding quarter ended 31 July 2010. The decrease in pre-tax profit was mainly due to the three months effect of the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% with effect from 1 June 2010 as compared to two months effect in the preceding quarter as well as higher prize payout in the current quarter under review
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate PE on current price 4.18 = 19.66(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)
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