KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,817,940,328 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.8-0.12)/0.1657 = 22.21 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.81+0.12 = 3.93 (PE 23.0, EPS 0.1657, DPS 0.12)
Decision	NOT BUY unless price below 3.7
Comment	Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps third consecutive quarter increasing and is highest since FY08Q3, got free and positive net cash flow, liquidity increased at moderate level now, gearing ratio decreased at above moderate now, inventory period increasing at historical high but other accounting period as usual
First Support Price	3.7
Second Support Price	3.45
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	4.2 (2010-12-20)
CIMB Target Price	5.45 (2010-12-20)
ECM Target Price	4.66 (2010-12-20)
OSK Target Price	4.78 (2010-12-20)
MIDF Target Price	4.68 (2011-01-10)
HwangDBS Target Price	5.25 (2011-01-11)
Maybank Target Price	4.45 (2011-02-02)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.80%
Dividend Yield	3.16%
Profit Margin	17.30%
Tax Rate	17.54%
Asset Turnover	0.3603
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.68
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.68
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.28
Cash Per Share	0.82
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5051
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.9759
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1452
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.8529
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4453
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	92.8%
Days to sell the inventory	131
Days to collect the receivables	184
Days to pay the payables	110

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue and profit before taxation of RM634.2 million and RM109.7 million respectively as compared to RM624.0 million and RM94.5 million respectively in the preceding year comparative quarter. The net profit for the period increased from RM77.0 million to RM90.4 million. The increase in profit before tax and net profit for the period were due to higher contributions from the construction and property divisions

- The current quarter’s profit before taxation of RM109.7 million was slightly lower than the immediate preceding quarter’s profit before taxation of RM115.5 million. However, the current quarter’s net profit for the period of RM90.4 million was slightly higher than the immediate preceding quarter’s net profit for the period of RM87.7 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate PE on current price 3.8 = 22.21(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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