My Analysis
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Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded revenue of RM634.5 million for the cumulative 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2010 as compared to RM639.9 million recorded in the preceding cumulative 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2009. The relatively stable revenue recorded in the current period was contributed by all business segments with the ongoing property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral recording significant jump in comparison to previous quarter
- Higher revenue recorded from the Group’s property division with better operational margin and the improved operational margin of its infrastructure and environmental division had contributed to the Group recording a higher profit before taxation of RM48.3 million for the current period ended 30 September 2010 compared to RM23.1 million achieved in the preceding corresponding period ended 30 September 2009
- The Group recorded a higher profit before taxation of RM15.0 million compared to RM12.0 million recorded in the preceding corresponding 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2009. Higher profit for the current quarter was mainly contributed by recognition of progress profit of the ongoing property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral which commenced construction late last year
- Over the next 3 years will see the progressive completion of the on-going construction works and property development within KL Sentral such as the KL Sentral Park, the Shell headquarters and NU Sentral Retail Mall and the Eastern Dispersal Link expressway concession project
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0188*4*1.1 = 0.0827(profit margin 8%, revenue increase rate 20%), estimate PE on current price 2.25 = 27.09(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 5Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0129,0.0175,0.0202,0.0237,0.0313(calculation is based on receivables, revenue, 8% profit margin and 27% tax rate), exclude 0.0129 then cum_eps is 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.49/17.26 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0743, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.96/18.03 (DPS 0.01)
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| Forecast P/E now | (2.25-0.01)/0.0827 = 27.09 (High) |
| Target Price | 1.90+0.01 = 1.91 (PE 23.0, EPS 0.0827, DPS 0.01) |
| Decision | NOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more |
| Comment | Revenue largely increased and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps third consecutive quarter decreasing and also largely lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, got free and positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio decreased to moderate level now, gearing ratio increased again at very high level now, receivables and payables period increasing to very high level now, construction and property division largely improved |
| First Support Price | 1.9 |
| Second Support Price | 1.8 |
| Risk Rating | HIGH |
Research House
| AMMB Target Price | 2.05 (2011-01-03) |
| OSK Target Price | 2.05 (2011-01-03) |
| CIMB Target Price | 2.86 (2011-01-10) |
| RHB Target Price | 2.65 (2011-01-10) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 3.05 (2011-01-25) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 3.89% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.44% |
| Profit Margin | 5.54% |
| Tax Rate | 30.79% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.2418 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 0.95 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 0.95 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 2.26 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.63 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 2.8316 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 2.5811 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 1.0282 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 2.1141 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.6743 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 168.1% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 90 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 519 |
| Days to pay the payables | 302 |
My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded revenue of RM634.5 million for the cumulative 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2010 as compared to RM639.9 million recorded in the preceding cumulative 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2009. The relatively stable revenue recorded in the current period was contributed by all business segments with the ongoing property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral recording significant jump in comparison to previous quarter
- Higher revenue recorded from the Group’s property division with better operational margin and the improved operational margin of its infrastructure and environmental division had contributed to the Group recording a higher profit before taxation of RM48.3 million for the current period ended 30 September 2010 compared to RM23.1 million achieved in the preceding corresponding period ended 30 September 2009
- The Group recorded a higher profit before taxation of RM15.0 million compared to RM12.0 million recorded in the preceding corresponding 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2009. Higher profit for the current quarter was mainly contributed by recognition of progress profit of the ongoing property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral which commenced construction late last year
- Over the next 3 years will see the progressive completion of the on-going construction works and property development within KL Sentral such as the KL Sentral Park, the Shell headquarters and NU Sentral Retail Mall and the Eastern Dispersal Link expressway concession project
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0188*4*1.1 = 0.0827(profit margin 8%, revenue increase rate 20%), estimate PE on current price 2.25 = 27.09(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 5Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0129,0.0175,0.0202,0.0237,0.0313(calculation is based on receivables, revenue, 8% profit margin and 27% tax rate), exclude 0.0129 then cum_eps is 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.49/17.26 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0743, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.96/18.03 (DPS 0.01)
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