KLCI Stock - BPURI / 5932 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	106,647,296 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(0.875-0.02)/0.0926 = 9.23 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.93+0.02 = 0.95 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0926, DPS 0.02)
Decision	Not interested unless got strong buy volume and lower sell volume when stock price below 0.87
Comment	Revenue decreased 1.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1%, eps decreased 59% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 53.2%, no cash generated from operating but still got more than enough borrowings to cover all expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio still acceptable
First Support Price	0.87
Second Support Price	0.83
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Kenanga Target Price	1.5 (2011-07-28)
Wilson & York Target Price	1.3 (2011-11-21)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.14%
Dividend Yield	2.29%
Profit Margin	1.96%
Tax Rate	71.78%
Asset Turnover	1.5848
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.1
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.8
Cash Per Share	0.55
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.0336
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.0131
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.0948
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	5.5209
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.8328
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	1.7%
Days to sell the inventory	4
Days to collect the receivables	171
Days to pay the payables	99

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.889 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	0.912 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	0.988 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.107 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.026611 (Uptrend 21 days)
MACD Histogram	0.008891 (Uptrend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The improved performance of construction division was mainly attributable to progressive profit recognised from projects secured during the period, which include KLIA 2, KK Times Square and Sabah Administration Centre

- The performance of the polyol division was affected by lack of export market, higher cost of raw materials and intense competition in the local market

- The current value of contract work in progress is approximately RM2.7 billion

- Lower profit mainly due to high tax expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0975*0.95 = 0.0926, estimate PE on current price 0.875 = 9.23(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0356+0.0195)*2 = 0.1102, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.16/7.35 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.028+0.0195)*2 = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/10.53 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.028*4*1.05 = 0.1176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.14/9.69 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/11.9 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0463*2 = 0.0926, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.15/11.23 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0828(10% grow from 0.0753, added adjustment from last quarter estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.12/11.59 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0781(10% grow from 0.071), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.26/9.8 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.078, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.9/8.91 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.17/11.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.39/15.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.78/14.19 (DPS 0.04)

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