KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,397,545,193 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.68-0.076)/0.1896 = 8.46 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.28+0.076 = 2.35 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1896, DPS 0.076)
Decision	BUY if macd back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 1.1% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 48.4%), eps decreased 1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.8%, no cash generated from operating after changed of assets & liabilities but cash generate from financing still more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio improved but inventory still at very high level, plastics division profit decreasing, property division revenue continue increasing
First Support Price	1.68
Second Support Price	1.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Nomura Target Price	3.08 (2011-02-10)
TA Target Price	3.32 (2011-04-15)
UOB Target Price	2.44 (2011-08-03)
Kenanga Target Price	2.87 (2011-08-18)
OSK Target Price	3.01 (2011-08-18)
CIMB Target Price	2.64 (2011-10-06)
MIDF Target Price	1.71 (2011-10-06)
RHB Target Price	1.55 (2011-10-06)
Maybank Target Price	1.76 (2011-11-22)
HLG Target Price	2.37 (2011-12-14)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	15.53%
Dividend Yield	4.52%
Profit Margin	14.55%
Tax Rate	28.97%
Asset Turnover	0.5461
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.21
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.21
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.6
Cash Per Share	0.69
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.8813
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4399
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9454
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.5562
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6052
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	125.8%
Days to sell the inventory	485
Days to collect the receivables	78
Days to pay the payables	172

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.816 (Downtrend 17 days)
SMA 50	1.897 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.997 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	2.231 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.078268 (Downtrend 20 days)
MACD Histogram	-0.026698 (Downtrend 11 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Unbilled locked in sales and remaining GDV is estimated at more than RM15 billion

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate PE on current price 1.68 = 8.46(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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