KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	769,132,320 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.20

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.32-0.024)/0.1636 = 7.92 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.96+0.024 = 1.99 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1636, DPS 0.024)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain and uptrend start above 1.3
Comment	Revenue increased 1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12%, eps increased 8.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from above moderate to moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio around 6 months still acceptable, no significant increase in inventory or property develpment cost
First Support Price	1.3
Second Support Price	1.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

RHB Target Price	1.77 (2011-10-03)
MIDF Target Price	1.5 (2011-11-01)
OSK Target Price	1.61 (2011-11-01)
AMMB Target Price	2.3 (2011-11-22)
HLG Target Price	2.09 (2011-11-23)
Maybank Target Price	2.1 (2011-11-23)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	21.94%
Dividend Yield	1.82%
Profit Margin	20.05%
Tax Rate	25.19%
Asset Turnover	0.8755
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.71
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.77
Cash Per Share	0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8511
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.6952
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.57
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.68
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4046
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.0%
Days to sell the inventory	30
Days to collect the receivables	179
Days to pay the payables	189

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.305 (Uptrend 10 days)
SMA 50	1.307 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.335 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.498 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.00939 (Uptrend 23 days)
MACD Histogram	0.006890 (Uptrend 21 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to increased activities in construction segment

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0409*4 = 0.1636, estimate PE on current price 1.32 = 7.92(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0378+0.0319)*2*1.05 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/8.17 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1533*0.97 = 0.1487, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.73/8.57 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0697*2*1.1 = 0.1533, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.49/11.05 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.08/11.99 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

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