KLCI Stock - SEB / 5163 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	32,800,000 (Very Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(0.41-0.01)/0.059 = 6.78 (High)
Target Price	0.27+0.01 = 0.28 (PE 4.5, EPS 0.059, DPS 0.01)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain and next uptrend start above 0.41
Comment	Revenue increased 3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 64.8%, eps increased 34.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2012.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, high inventory can indicate products demand still good
First Support Price	0.41
Second Support Price	0.395
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.78%
Dividend Yield	2.44%
Profit Margin	8.36%
Tax Rate	20.71%
Asset Turnover	0.7649
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.72
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.72
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.58
Cash Per Share	0.28
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.0031
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4594
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.666
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.7278
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4174
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	43.2%
Days to sell the inventory	93
Days to collect the receivables	125
Days to pay the payables	94

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):
- Higher pbt mainly attributable to higher sales and better profit margin

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0126+0.0169)*2 = 0.059, estimate PE on current price 0.41 = 6.78(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.28/7.76 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.69/8.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Next quarter Q1 result maybe low, use year 2010 cum_eps to estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0431*1.15 = 0.0496(revenue, profit and receivables also largely increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/9.98 (DPS 0.01)
- Revenue QbQ increasing more than 15%, use 10% profit margin, estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0168+0.0193)*2 = 0.0722, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.63/8.1

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