KLCI Stock - IOICORP / 1961 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	32,434,159,264 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(5.05-0.18)/0.255 = 19.10 (High)
Target Price	4.08+0.18 = 4.26 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.255, DPS 0.18)
Decision	Nt interested unless CPO price back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue decreased 4.1% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.9%, eps decreased 54.9% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.9%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio from moderate to above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, CPO price got uptrend signal if continue break resistance, lower property development cost can indicate property project work lesser
First Support Price	4.9
Second Support Price	4.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	5.89 (2011-06-27)
Kenanga Target Price	5.52 (2011-07-29)
RHB Target Price	5.3 (2011-07-29)
TA Target Price	6.11 (2011-07-29)
OSK Target Price	4.64 (2011-10-05)
ECM Target Price	5.98 (2011-11-21)
HLG Target Price	4.63 (2011-11-21)
Maybank Target Price	5.14 (2011-11-21)
UOB Target Price	4.5 (2011-11-21)
CIMB Target Price	4.92 (2011-11-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	17.69%
Dividend Yield	3.37%
Profit Margin	16.50%
Tax Rate	24.94%
Asset Turnover	0.8219
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.85
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.77
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.64
Cash Per Share	0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.3667
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.1047
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.246
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6162
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3762
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	33.5%
Days to sell the inventory	79
Days to collect the receivables	40
Days to pay the payables	38

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	5.066 (Downtrend 4 days)
SMA 50	5.047 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	4.855 (Same)
SMA 200	5.088 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.062604 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	-0.009836 (Downtrend 17 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt due mainly to unrealised translation loss on foreign currency denominated borrowings of RM271.7million (Q1 FY2011 - gain of RM159.7 million), lower contributions from both resource-based manufacturing and property segments

- Additional reason lower pbt than FY11Q4 because fair value gain on investment properties of RM93.1 million recognised in FY11Q4 and fair value differences on outstanding derivative contracts for resource-based manufacturing segment(current: loss of RM79 million; Q4: gain of RM3.7 million)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.3*0.85 = 0.255, estimate PE on current price 5.05 = 19.1(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.08+0.07)*2 = 0.3(exclude RM99 million fair value gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.13/11.9 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.08*4*1.1 = 0.352(exclude RM126.1 million non-repeatable/other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.8/11.7 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1472*2 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.06/16.98 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.09*4 = 0.36, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.64/14.64 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0828*4*1.05 = 0.3478, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/14.32 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0692*1.1*4 = 0.3045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/15.04 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/17.46 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0737*4 = 0.2948, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.86/16.72 (DPS 0.07)

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