KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2012 Quarter 4

GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD


Company Description

GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD operates in the beer and stout market of the brewing industry, engaged in the production, Guinness Anchor Berhad operates in the brewing industry principally in Malaysia. The Company is principally engaged in the production, packaging, marketing and distribution of GUINNESS Stout, GUINNESS Draught, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong Beer, Tiger Beer, Heineken Beer, Kilkenny Draught, Anglia Shandy and Malta. The Company’s subsidiaries include Guinness Anchor Marketing Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in the marketing and promotion of GUINNESS Stout, GUINNESS Draught, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong Beer, Tiger Beer, Heineken Beer, Kilkenny Draught, Anglia Shandy and Malta in Malaysia, and Ramaha Corporation (M) Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in property holding and land development.

Company Info 

Listing Date	1965-03-31
Market Capital (Capital Size)	4,827,526,040 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Beverages Products
Sub Industry	Breweries
Website	http://www.gab.com.my

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(15.98-0.6)/0.7552 = 20.37 (Moderate)
Target Price	15.71+0.6 = 16.31 (PE 20.8, EPS 0.7552, DPS 0.6)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price strong sustain above 16 or wait rebound at lower price or when got special dividend announce
Comment	Revenue decreased 5.1% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.8%, eps decreased 32.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to pay dividend hence increased borrowings to cover all other expenses, average operating margin per quarter still got around 17% which is quite good, current liquidity ratio indicate more than sufficient to meet current obligation, gearing ratio indicate Group is very efficient to generate income with higher leverage, all accounting of inventory/receivables/payables period is short hence can utilize the liquidity to improve efficiency
First Support Price	15.7
Second Support Price	13.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Macquarie Target Price	13.5 (2012-05-24)
AMMB Target Price	14.5 (2012-08-29)
HLG Target Price	15.13 (2012-08-29)
Maybank Target Price	14.5 (2012-08-29)
TA Target Price	14.67 (2012-08-29)
CIMB Target Price	17.1 (2012-08-30)
OSK Target Price	17.47 (2012-09-20)
Alliance Target Price	16.58 (2012-10-01)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	40.15%
Dividend Yield	3.75%
Gross Profit Margin	-
Operating Profit Margin	13.91%
Net Profit Margin	13.55%
Tax Rate	25.69%
Asset Turnover	2.0832
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.26
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	13.47
Cash Per Share	0.53
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.4
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.0966
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.741
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0527
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5128
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	18.7%
Days to sell the inventory	18
Days to collect the receivables	64
Days to pay the payables	42

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	15.894 (Uptrend)
SMA 20	15.698 (Uptrend 3 days)
SMA 50	15.566 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	14.554 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	13.701 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.144586 ( 0.001319 )
Signal (9)	0.141788 ( 0.000699 )
MACD Histogram	0.002798 (Bullish trend 11 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	16.261
Bolinger Lower Band	15.135

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 due to improved pricing in the MLM, favourable product mix and the non repeat of one off costs taken in the FY11Q4

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY12Q3 mainly driven by the Chinese New Year sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 207399*1.1/302098 = 0.7552, estimate PE on current price 15.98 = 20.37(DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = (172564+29076)*1.1/302098 = 0.7342, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.87/16.48 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 504700*0.4/302098 = 0.6683, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.85/17.06 (DPS 1.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.655*1.05 = 0.6878, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.97/14.34 (DPS 1.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6004*1.1 = 0.6604, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.55/13.4 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6223*1.1 = 0.6845, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/13.88 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6139*0.95 = 0.5832, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.99/14.92 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.545, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.36/15.32 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5054*1.05 = 0.5307 (5% grow from 0.5054, due to next year no more world cup), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.81/14.23 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/12.55 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

GAB latest news (English)

GAB latest news (Chinese)

Material price

Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	gros_m	oper_m	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2012-08-28	2012	4	N/A	N/A	-	6.74%	40.15%	346028	1623687	46876	276981	34835	207399	0.1153	0.6865	779418	399715	-	379703	180272	54837	144392	179777	125435	18957	160820	302098	302098	4761064	2012-06-30	-	13.91%	13.55%	25.69%	2.0832	22.9561	1.26	1.17	13.47	0.53	2.4	2.0966	0.741	1.0527	0.5128	18.7%	18	64	42
2012-05-23	2012	3	15.92	12.7	-	9.98%	33.40%	364714	1277659	68721	230105	51534	172564	0.1706	0.5712	820030	445070	-	374960	161521	30397	114182	179777	131124	16942	196719	302098	302098	3927274	2012-03-31	-	19.16%	18.84%	25.01%	1.9834	-	1.24	1.17	11.11	0.65	2.7224	2.448	0.9258	1.187	0.5427	22.5%	16	72	53
2012-02-23	2012	2	13.8	12.6	0.1	12.74%	23.43%	468322	912946	87777	161385	65822	121031	0.2179	0.4006	936441	431741	-	504700	16019	16691	17077	179777	672	16405	196182	302098	302098	3818518	2011-12-31	-	18.55%	18.74%	25.01%	1.7231	-	1.67	1.62	7.8	0.65	2.8118	2.4632	0.7874	0.8554	0.461	28.0%	23	93	63
2011-11-02	2012	1	13.5	10.4	0.6	10.69%	10.69%	444623	444623	73607	73607	55208	55208	0.1827	0.1827	789307	217477	-	571830	11904	3892	N/A	179777	15796	15796	163981	302098	302098	3244532	2011-09-30	-	16.27%	16.55%	25.00%	1.9849	-	1.89	1.86	5.77	0.54	3.0223	2.6633	0.8869	0.3803	0.2755	23.9%	19	76	49
2011-08-04	2011	4	10.82	9.4	0.44	6.17%	38.52%	348759	1488720	37725	242883	29076	181378	0.0962	0.6004	685138	168522	-	516616	196345	30250	135944	149626	166095	30151	179777	302098	302098	3280784	2011-06-30	-	10.54%	10.82%	22.93%	2.1729	18.0881	1.71	1.68	6.46	0.6	3.3246	2.8434	1.3226	0.3262	0.246	21.2%	19	50	39
2011-05-05	2011	3	10.9	9.95	-	10.40%	32.34%	351916	1139961	67324	205158	48972	152302	0.1621	0.5041	724586	206944	-	517642	100344	19879	95734	149626	80465	15269	134357	302098	302098	3093483	2011-03-31	-	19.07%	19.13%	27.26%	1.9993	-	1.71	1.68	6.1	0.44	2.7829	2.3704	0.7673	0.3998	0.2856	21.5%	22	71	46
2011-01-28	2011	2	10.36	9.15	0.1	13.73%	21.94%	421414	788045	86196	137834	64635	103330	0.2140	0.3420	721704	253054	-	468650	4194	11225	85734	149626	15419	101153	48473	302098	302098	2909203	2010-12-31	-	20.36%	20.45%	25.01%	2.0335	-	1.55	1.52	6.34	0.16	2.195	1.7872	0.2191	0.54	0.3506	18.0%	27	86	56
2010-11-03	2011	1	11.0	8.8	-	8.22%	8.22%	366631	366631	51638	51638	38695	38695	0.1281	0.1281	719189	209532	-	509657	40609	974	N/A	149626	41583	41583	108043	302098	302098	2667525	2010-09-30	-	13.88%	14.08%	25.06%	1.9804	-	1.69	1.65	5.35	0.36	2.7352	2.271	0.6081	0.4111	0.2913	21.6%	25	75	52
2010-08-04	2010	4	8.84	8.0	0.35	8.02%	34.52%	308713	1358633	47822	204991	35477	152691	0.1174	0.5054	662562	191634	-	470928	143120	33406	123860	163772	109714	14146	149626	302098	302098	2446993	2010-06-30	-	15.27%	15.49%	25.81%	2.0506	16.0258	1.56	1.52	5.33	0.5	2.6465	2.1728	0.9364	0.4069	0.2892	19.4%	24	53	49
2010-05-07	2010	3	8.16	6.9	-	10.55%	26.50%	370817	1049920	62723	157169	46679	117214	0.1545	0.3880	682604	216927	-	465677	63237	14107	78650	163772	49130	29520	134252	302098	302098	2087497	2010-03-31	-	16.88%	16.91%	25.58%	1.9428	-	1.54	1.52	4.55	0.44	2.4415	2.1361	0.7223	0.4658	0.3178	20.2%	18	72	51
2010-02-09	2010	2	7.22	6.68	0.1	9.91%	15.95%	378134	679103	58645	94476	43818	70565	0.1450	0.2336	636001	216785	-	419216	37246	7379	78650	163772	44625	123275	40497	302098	302098	1993846	2009-12-31	-	15.43%	15.51%	25.28%	1.9972	-	1.39	1.36	4.85	0.13	2.1891	1.5991	0.218	0.5171	0.3409	17.4%	36	74	53
2009-11-26	2010	1	7.57	6.6	-	6.05%	6.05%	300969	300969	35831	35831	26747	26747	0.0885	0.0885	649492	180444	-	469048	24066	1628	N/A	163772	25694	25694	138078	302098	302098	2292923	2009-09-30	-	11.72%	11.91%	25.35%	1.8793	-	1.55	1.53	4.96	0.46	2.8039	2.3697	0.9242	0.3847	0.2778	22.1%	22	65	49
2009-08-28	2009	4	7.68	6.5	0.31	6.66%	34.52%	276274	1285423	38012	191178	27391	141988	0.0907	0.4700	646150	203849	-	442301	121193	29774	111021	183374	91419	19602	163772	302098	302098	1975720	2009-06-30	-	13.52%	13.76%	27.94%	1.9894	13.9147	1.46	1.44	4.54	0.54	2.3727	1.9708	0.9477	0.4609	0.3155	18.5%	23	50	54
2009-05-15	2009	3	6.54	5.9	-	7.93%	27.86%	314826	1009149	43606	153166	32599	114597	0.1079	0.3793	679614	234494	-	445120	86903	12850	52911	183374	74053	21142	204516	302098	302098	1797483	2009-03-31	-	13.78%	13.85%	25.24%	1.8532	-	1.47	1.46	4.08	0.68	2.2241	1.9682	1.0014	0.5268	0.345	19.8%	18	57	55
2009-02-27	2009	2	5.95	5.35	0.1	8.43%	19.93%	328519	694323	46308	109560	34675	81998	0.1148	0.2714	673327	260806	-	412521	45824	11412	49311	183374	57236	106547	76827	302098	302098	1601119	2008-12-31	-	13.87%	14.10%	25.12%	1.8912	-	1.37	1.35	3.93	0.25	1.92	1.5791	0.3332	0.6322	0.3873	16.7%	26	82	60
2008-11-26	2009	1	5.45	4.96	-	11.50%	11.50%	365804	365804	63252	63252	47323	47323	0.1566	0.1566	663803	205146	-	458657	93018	7093	N/A	183374	100111	100111	83263	302098	302098	1601119	2008-09-30	-	17.08%	17.29%	25.18%	1.8608	-	1.52	1.51	3.51	0.28	2.4664	2.0924	0.4761	0.4473	0.309	20.8%	22	84	54
2008-08-29	2008	4	5.45	4.46	0.31	5.06%	32.68%	250310	1194602	25258	168898	19486	125857	0.0645	0.4166	623449	212115	-	411334	156126	27725	99632	154605	128401	28769	183374	302098	302098	1616224	2008-06-30	-	9.52%	10.09%	22.85%	1.9161	12.8418	1.36	1.35	3.96	0.61	2.1537	1.7964	1.0084	0.5157	0.3402	17.6%	23	44	61
2008-05-23	2008	3	5.65	5.1	-	9.45%	27.62%	328741	944292	49141	143640	36392	106371	0.1205	0.3521	657487	236577	-	420910	108834	13798	34480	154605	95036	60556	215161	302098	302098	1661539	2008-03-31	-	14.85%	14.95%	25.94%	1.7908	-	1.39	1.38	3.99	0.71	2.1116	1.8862	1.0483	0.5621	0.3598	19.4%	17	53	56
2008-02-22	2008	2	5.85	5.2	0.13	6.98%	18.17%	290351	615551	36307	94499	26873	69979	0.0890	0.2316	603672	219154	-	384518	12306	6654	70570	154605	18960	89530	65075	302098	302098	1631329	2007-12-31	-	12.16%	12.50%	25.98%	1.8718	-	1.27	1.26	4.29	0.22	2.0263	1.5449	0.3465	0.5699	0.363	17.1%	34	73	66
2007-11-29	2008	1	5.9	5.25	-	11.19%	11.19%	325200	325200	58192	58192	43106	43106	0.1427	0.1427	616449	188234	-	428215	46023	2459	N/A	154605	48482	48482	106123	302098	302098	1706853	2007-09-30	-	17.61%	17.89%	25.92%	1.7638	-	1.42	1.4	4.04	0.35	2.4965	2.1864	0.6763	0.4396	0.3054	21.6%	19	80	57
2007-08-28	2007	4	6.1	5.65	0.32	N/A	N/A	233110	1072112	21388	152159	17147	112561	0.0568	0.3726	562060	176951	-	385109	145195	18374	91747	119531	126821	35074	154605	302098	302098	1782378	2007-06-30	-	8.61%	9.18%	19.83%	1.3559	15.8348	1.27	1.26	4.68	0.51	2.2961	2.0218	1.0616	0.4595	0.3148	24.8%	22	67	77
2007-05-04	2007	3	N/A	N/A	-	N/A	N/A	281266	839002	45374	130771	33935	95414	0.1123	0.3158	605635	209004	-	396631	105258	6260	20478	119531	98998	78520	198051	302098	302098	1842797	2007-03-31	-	16.08%	16.13%	25.21%	0.8735	-	1.31	1.3	4.69	0.66	2.1892	1.9916	1.1247	0.5269	0.3451	39.6%	28	105	101
2007-02-26	2007	2	N/A	N/A	0.13	N/A	N/A	247728	557736	33942	85397	24406	61479	0.0808	0.2035	543967	181271	-	362696	2364	2974	63078	119531	610	63688	55843	302098	302098	1842797	2006-12-31	-	13.43%	13.70%	28.09%	N/A	-	1.2	1.19	5.13	0.18	2.1613	1.6476	0.3764	0.4998	0.3332	N/A	-	N/A	N/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Intangible assets (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Receivables (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Trade and other payables (L-1)
2012	4	-	25873	231549	1132	160820	9733	65833	284478	32685	150000	12318	50000	154712
2012	3	-	20333	220107	1136	196719	4779	58317	318639	32592	200000	16116	-	196362
2012	2	-	14898	219759	1233	196182	4807	86857	412705	32592	150000	17150	-	231999
2012	1	-	10080	219177	1264	163981	3025	66378	325402	32592	-	8713	-	176172
2011	4	-	9124	222953	1152	179777	764	65402	205966	32592	-	3353	-	132577
2011	3	1412	9362	225537	1001	134357	-	72216	280701	31846	-	14367	10000	150731
2011	2	1412	9379	224385	981	48473	1260	90201	345613	31846	-	14575	20000	186633
2011	1	1412	10004	221070	697	108043	3030	82484	292449	31846	-	7024	-	170662
2010	4	1412	10434	227103	728	149626	1433	75691	196135	31846	-	4724	-	155064
2010	3	1924	7064	218511	1279	134252	-	56761	262813	31048	-	11590	15000	159289
2010	2	1924	6862	219216	1406	40497	-	109574	256522	31048	-	11409	15000	159328
2010	1	1924	5932	221268	1481	138078	-	64868	215941	31048	-	7332	-	142064
2009	4	1924	6529	226110	1585	163772	-	69453	176777	31048	-	9831	-	162970
2009	3	2338	5120	216304	1634	204516	-	52255	197447	30266	-	13522	27900	162806
2009	2	2338	5086	221560	1697	76827	-	78590	287229	30266	-	18130	31500	180910
2009	1	2338	3848	224507	1783	83263	-	65415	282649	30266	-	15997	-	158883
2008	4	2338	2953	224645	1858	183374	-	64976	143305	30266	-	9568	-	172281
2008	3	2809	2572	216762	1930	215161	-	46254	171999	31323	-	12709	36090	156455
2008	2	2809	2641	215787	1836	65075	-	90420	225104	31323	-	12658	-	175173
2008	1	2809	3895	215889	2120	106123	-	48661	236952	31323	-	11050	-	145861
2007	4	2809	3148	219462	2271	154605	-	39939	139826	31323	-	5381	-	140247
2007	3	3971	3527	212624	-	198051	-	34798	152664	32910	-	9017	42600	124477
2007	2	3971	3936	215410	-	55843	-	76212	188595	32910	-	5258	-	143103

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Finance/interest costs	Administrative/Operating expenses	Finance/interest income
2012	4	346028	12041	2553	297892	1293
2012	3	364714	17187	1907	294844	758
2012	2	468322	21955	51	381440	946
2012	1	444623	18399	17	372270	1271
2011	4	348759	8649	20	311998	984
2011	3	351916	18352	134	284802	344
2011	2	421414	21561	220	335594	596
2011	1	366631	12943	55	315728	790
2010	4	308713	12345	22	261586	673
2010	3	370817	16044	147	308214	267
2010	2	378134	14827	150	319777	438
2010	1	300969	9084	70	265694	626
2009	4	276274	10621	33	238922	693
2009	3	314826	11007	295	271445	520
2009	2	328519	11633	336	282952	1077
2009	1	365804	15929	70	303328	846
2008	4	250310	5772	49	226474	1471
2008	3	328741	12749	379	279921	700
2008	2	290351	9434	88	255045	1089
2008	1	325200	15086	86	267940	1018
2007	4	233110	4241	50	213042	1370
2007	3	281266	11439	442	236030	580
2007	2	247728	9536	95	214462	771

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = average days to sell the inventory, rec_d = Average days to collect the receivables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING