KLCI Stock - LPI / 8621 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 221323980*11.46 = 2,536,372,810.80 (Large)
NTA per share : 1096544/214900 = 5.1
P/BV : 11.46/5.1 = 2.2471
Forecast P/E now : (11.46-0.37)/0.7077 = 15.67 (High)
ROE : 13.09% (Moderate)
DY : 0.37/11.46*100 = 3.23% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : Not applicable
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : Not interested unless profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 10.5
My Comment : Revenue and profit increase rate slow down, no free cash flow, cash decreased, lower profit in investment division
Technical Support Price : 11.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE (due to high PE)
OSK Target Price : 11.65 (08 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group‟s revenue increased by 9.7% as compared to the same corresponding quarter in 2009. The increase was mainly due to higher gross premium underwritten. The Group‟s profit before tax increased by 15.2% as compared to the same corresponding quarter in 2009. The increase was mainly due to higher underwriting profit

- For the third quarter ended 30 September 2010, the Group recorded 32% higher in profit before tax as compared to the preceding quarter ended 30 June 2010. The increase in the profit before tax for the said quarter was mainly due to higher investment income received

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1685*4*1.05 = 0.7077, estimate PE on current price 11.46 = 15.67(DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.46/15.5 (DPS 0.5125)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.76 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.0533(15% grow from 0.9159), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.94/11.53 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.0253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/11.16 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.0204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.43/10.25 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.88/8.63 (DPS 0.85)

LPI latest news (English)