KLCI Stock - KENCANA / 5122 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 1658836074*1.92 = 3,184,965,262.08 (Large)
NTA per share : (753209-37426)/1665306 = 0.43
P/BV : 1.92/0.43 = 4.4651
Forecast P/E now : (1.92-0.005)/0.1096 = 17.47 (High)
ROE : 18.03% (Moderate)
DY : 0.005/1.92*100 = 0.26% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.7951+1.2073+1.6679+1.4143)/4 = 1.2712 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 795569/544773 = 1.4604 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (539883+259874)/2/(1089698/365) = 133 days
My Target Price : 1.973+0.005 = 1.98 (PE 18, EPS 0.1096, DPS 0.005)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.7
My Comment : Revenue remain low but profit increased, moderate cash, above moderate debt and increased, navps slightly increasing, receivables double up, oil price above $80
Technical Support Price : 1.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.06 (14 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-

- For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue and profit before increased by approximately 8% and 32% respectively in the current quarter. This is mainly due to lower expenses incurred and better management of relevant costs particularly from the offshore services segment

- Profit before tax for the current quarter under review had gone up by 40%, as compared to the immediate preceding quarter. The increase in profit before tax for the current quarter was mainly due to better management of relevant costs and lower expenses incurred

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0249*4*1.1 = 0.1096, estimate PE on current price 1.92 = 17.47(DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.19/18.26 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.02*4 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.94/15.69 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0339*4 = 0.1356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.47/9.92 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1307, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/16.03 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0324*4 = 0.1296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.32/12.77 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0301*4 = 0.1204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/9.34 (DPS 0.005)

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