KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2010 Quarter 4

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 4358061345*8.82 = 38,438,101,062.90 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 28778900/4362060 = 6.6
P/BV : 8.82/6.6 = 1.3364
Forecast P/E now : (8.82-0.26)/0.7455 = 11.31 (Moderate)
ROE : 18.05% (Moderate)
DY : 0.26/8.82*100 = 2.95% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(5 year) : (0.4363+0.4034+0.3544+0.3443+0.3132)/5 = 0.3703 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 147955/97008 = 1.5252 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (3881400+3774100)/2/(32320100/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless JPN currency weakeaning
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit decreased, good cash flow, strong cash, high debt but decreasing, navps increasing, global coal price increasing, JPY currency increasing
Technical Support Price : 8.6, 8.3
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 9.76 (29 Oct 2010)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-

- During the quarter under review, the Group recorded an increase of 6% sales of electricity as compared to the corresponding quarter last financial year. The electricity demand also showed a positive growth and recorded 5.8% increase from the last corresponding period

- The growth in sales has resulted in higher revenue of 5.5%. Resulting from the higher revenue, the profit attributable to equity holders has increased of more than 100%

- Compared to the immediate preceding quarter, the Group's revenue was 1.9% higher than the preceding quarter

- During the quarter under review, operating expenses recorded an increase of 4.7%

- The weakening of Ringgit against Japanese Yen for the quarter under review has resulted in the Group to record a foreign exchange translation loss of RM35.5 million, as compared to a profit of RM569.1 million recorded in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate PE on current price 8.82 = 24.04(DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

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