KLCI Stock - KELADI / 6769 - 2011 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 758310000*0.19 = 144,078,900 (Small)
NTA per share : 181898/758310 = 0.24
P/BV : 0.19/0.24 = 0.7917
Forecast P/E now : (0.19-0.01)/0.016 = 11.25 (High)
ROE : 6.87% (Low)
DY : 0.01/0.19*100 = 5.26% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.2795+0.3052+0.3413)/3 = 0.3087 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 119394/20376 = 5.8595 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (21902+18116)/2/(57784/365) = 126 days
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreased, good cash flow, low debt but slightly increased, navps same
Technical Support Price : 0.15
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- For the six months ended 31 July 2010, the Group reported revenue of 4.47% lower than the preceding year’s corresponding quarter. In line with the lower revenue, the profit before tax and minority interest was a decrease of 14.70% from the previous year’s corresponding quarter

- The decreased in revenue was because the Group disposed more completed properties in previous year’s corresponding period. Profit before tax dropped due to the decline in revenue and the lower profit margin of the properties sold. In the previous year corresponding period, the revenue and profit derived mainly from sales of shophouses, bungalow land, semi-detached houses, whereas in the current quarter, the types of units completed and sold comprised mainly low and medium cost houses which yielded lower profit

- Group’s profit for the financial year was derived mainly from property development activities and sale of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB)

- The profit before tax for the quarter reported on was a decrease of 38.85% compared to the preceding quarter ended 30 April 2010. The decreased in the profit before tax is mainly due to lower contribution from property development activities

- Lower progress revenue recognition in current quarter because there was only two new phases launched during the period under review. The other three phases which were launched earlier had almost reached completion stage therefore a large portion of the profit had been recognised in the preceding quarters

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*0.9 = 0.016, estimate PE on current price 0.19 = 11.25(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0178 (based on last year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/7.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10/9.03 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015)

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