KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 460000000*1.86 = 855,600,000 (Medium)
NTA per share : (341513-1168)/460000 = 0.74
P/BV : 1.86/0.74 = 2.5135
Forecast P/E now : (1.86-0.12)/0.1896 = 9.18 (High)
ROE : 26.08% (High)
DY : 0.12/1.86*100 = 6.45% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8311+0.8839+0.8569+0.7911)/4 = 0.8408 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 226496/47614 = 4.7569 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (41374+36635)/2/(324925/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 1.9+0.12 = 2.02 (PE 10, EPS 0.1896, DPS 0.12)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.8
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, good cash flow, strong cash, low debt, weakening USD
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.36 (19 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group recorded 18.7% lower profit before taxation and 11.9% lower revenue for the third quarter of FY 2010 as compared to the corresponding quarter in FY 2009

- The revenue for the current quarter under review was 5.7% lower than the immediate preceding quarter’s, mainly due to the weakening of USD and drop in market demand. The current quarter’s profit before tax has increased 16.4% as compared to the immediate preceding quarter’s, mainly contributed by increase in share of profit in associate

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate PE on current price 1.86 = 9.18(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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