KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2011 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 236810480*0.45 = 106,564,716 (Small)
NTA per share : (70945-33728)/236810 = 0.16
P/BV : 0.45/0.16 = 2.8125
Forecast P/E now : 0.45/0.0044 = 102.27 (Very high)
ROE : 2.22% (Low)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0005+0.8054+0.7374)/3 = 0.8478 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 64260/73730 = 0.8716 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (21987+25780)/2/(161090/365) = 54 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, bad cash flow, high debt but decreasing, high latex price, US dollar depreciation
Technical Support Price : 0.44
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group's pbt for the quarter ended 31 July 2010 was 68.1% lower as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter's. The lower current year's quarter profit was mainly due to expenses on right issue listing and provision for doubtful debt

- The Group recorded a 53.1% lower pbt and 18.7% lower revenue for the current quarter as compared to the immediate preceding quarter ended 30 April 2010

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate PE on current price 0.45 = 102.27
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

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