KLCI Stock - 3A / 0012 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	476,256,022 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.20

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.21-0.012)/0.026 = 46.08 (High)
Target Price	0.26+0.012 = 0.27 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.026, DPS 0.012)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price can sustain and uptrend above 1.27
Comment	Revenue decreased 11% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.2%, eps decreased 44.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.2%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 84.7% of Group cash to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from raw material decreased, no significant increase of inventory can indicate demand not grow yet
First Support Price	1.16
Second Support Price	1.07
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price

1.83 (2011-11-17)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	7.19%
Dividend Yield	0.99%
Profit Margin	6.97%
Tax Rate	48.63%
Asset Turnover	0.9909
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.31
Cash Per Share	0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.4814
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.448
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.469
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3482
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2582
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	36.3%
Days to sell the inventory	59
Days to collect the receivables	101
Days to pay the payables	21

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to lower demand for the Group's products

- Higher pbt as a result of lower raw material costs as well as production efficiency

- Lower pat due to higher tax

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0059*4*1.1 = 0.026, estimate PE on current price 1.21 = 46.08 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0107*4*0.8 = 0.0342, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.12/30.94 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0153*2 = 0.0306, estimate highest/lowest PE = 60.46/45.42 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.015*4 = 0.06(base on 3% roe per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.8/23.13 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0286*3 = 0.0858(0.0286 is recent 2Q cum_eps, FYQ1-11 & FYQ2-11 to double as current), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.31/17.88 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.076, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.89/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.05/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

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