KLCI Stock - CARLSBG / 2836 - 2011 Quarter 4

CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD



Company Description

CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BERHAD is a Malaysia-based company engaged in the production of beer, stout, shandy and non-alcoholic beverages for distribution in the Malaysian market and for Export. It is also involved in the marketing and distribution of beer, stout, shandy and non-alcoholic beverages. The Company distributes its products under the brand names of Carlsberg, Tuborg, Corona, Budweiser, Stella Artois, Hoegaarden, Carlsberg Gold, Carlsberg Special Brew, SKOL, Danish Royal Stout, Jolly Shandy and Nutrimalt among orthers. The Company has three fully owned subsidiaries: Carlsberg Marketing Sdn. Bhd., Euro Distributors Sdn. Bhd., Carlsberg Singapore Pte. Ltd. and one owned at 70%: Luen Heng F & B Sdn. Bhd.

Company Info

Listing Date	1972-01-27
Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,358,050,200 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Food & Beverages
Sub Industry	Breweries
Website	http://www.carlsberg.com.my

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(10.9-0.68)/0.5366 = 19.05 (High)
Target Price	8.59+0.68 = 9.27 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.5366, DPS 0.68)
Decision	BUY for dividend keep
Comment	Revenue decreased 16.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.7%, eps decreased 23.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 22.6%, cash generated from operating almost enough for financing expenses hence spent 29.2% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, lower debt ratio and is far from historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate still good sales prospect
First Support Price	11.0
Second Support Price	10.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

RHB Target Price	7.96 (2011-04-21)
Maybank Target Price	8 (2011-09-05)
OSK Target Price	8.31 (2011-09-15)
AMMB Target Price	8.3 (2011-11-16)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	26.33%
Dividend Yield	6.65%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	13.60%
Net Profit Margin	13.80%
Tax Rate	18.28%
Asset Turnover	1.55
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.05
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	13.31
Cash Per Share	0.24
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.456
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2096
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2845
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5259
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3432
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	7.8%
Days to sell the inventory	18
Days to collect the receivables	57
Days to pay the payables	61

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	10.576 (Uptrend 23 days)
SMA 50	10.044 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	9.077 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	7.698 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.297805 ( 0.011405 )
Signal (9)	0.292102 ( 0.001426 )
MACD Histogram	0.005703 (Bullish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt in Malaysia business than FY10Q4 due to higher promotional expenses incurred ahead of the 2012 Chinese New Year

- Higher revenue and pbt in Singapore business than FY10Q4 as market place execution and premium brands improved both the sales mix and volume performance and the one-off gain from reversal of over provision of royalty expenses in prior year

- Higher net loss from the other operations was primarily contributed by the one-off restructuring expenses coupled with the write down of the inventory value for slow moving stock in Taiwan

- Lower revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to a temporary lull in sales following the stocking up by the trade in previous quarter ahead of the 2012 Government Budget announcement

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 631049*0.26/305748 = 0.5366, estimate PE on current price 10.9 = 19.05(DPS 0.68)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.521*1.05 = 0.5471, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/11.87 (DPS 0.555)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4727*1.05 = 0.4963, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.32 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1601+0.0997)*2*1.1 = 0.5716, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.81/10.39 (DPS 0.58)

CARLSBG latest news (English)

CARLSBG latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	gros_m	oper_m	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2012-02-24	2011	4	N/A	N/A	0.675	5.92%	26.33%	334968	1489356	46221	220374	37349	166160	0.1222	0.5435	960858	329809	3916	631049	154537	21577	162735	101971	132960	29775	72196	305748	305748	2889318	2011-12-31	-	13.60%	13.80%	18.28%	1.55	17.3888	2.05	0.71	13.31	0.24	1.456	1.2096	0.2845	0.5259	0.3432	7.8%	18	57	61
2011-11-15	2011	3	9.74	7.05	-	8.05%	21.23%	401661	1154388	68906	174153	48848	128811	0.1598	0.4213	1016812	409993	3494	606819	70188	11811	77422	101765	58377	19045	82720	305748	305748	2155523	2011-09-30	-	16.94%	17.16%	28.91%	1.456	-	1.97	0.64	11.02	0.27	1.2821	1.1237	0.2465	0.6796	0.4032	6.4%	15	72	64
2011-08-25	2011	2	7.12	6.2	0.05	5.56%	14.34%	345512	752727	40948	105247	31019	79963	0.1015	0.2615	923051	365363	3356	557688	23091	5024	84423	101838	18067	66356	35482	305748	305748	2094373	2011-06-30	-	11.52%	11.85%	23.70%	1.5257	-	1.81	0.47	14.57	0.12	1.1753	0.9823	0.122	0.6591	0.3958	3.6%	17	65	58
2011-05-11	2011	1	7.9	6.52	-	7.73%	7.73%	407215	407215	64299	64299	48944	48944	0.1601	0.1601	930732	297300	3133	633432	1698	2217	38341	101515	3915	42256	59259	305748	305748	2210558	2011-03-31	-	15.38%	15.79%	23.20%	1.5009	-	2.06	0.75	9.64	0.19	1.6093	1.3958	0.2644	0.4717	0.3194	9.8%	14	66	60
2011-02-24	2010	4	8.04	6.48	0.505	5.24%	22.89%	326057	1368158	39908	176536	30495	133242	0.0997	0.4358	931021	348898	2696	582123	222527	218929	19178	116950	3598	15580	101370	305748	305748	1926212	2010-12-31	-	12.10%	12.24%	22.94%	1.4695	14.4565	1.9	0.59	10.68	0.33	1.3112	1.1343	0.3672	0.6021	0.3747	6.3%	15	55	65
2010-11-11	2010	3	6.52	5.74	-	5.92%	17.86%	329492	1042101	46825	136628	34087	102747	0.1115	0.3361	907310	331995	2437	575315	107256	205619	5851	121170	98363	92512	28658	305748	305748	1788625	2010-09-30	-	14.07%	14.21%	27.01%	1.4796	-	1.87	0.54	10.83	0.09	1.3278	1.167	0.1104	0.5795	0.3659	6.3%	13	74	59
2010-08-18	2010	2	5.86	5.12	0.075	5.68%	12.66%	334154	712609	40585	89803	30815	68660	0.1008	0.2246	903550	361372	2348	542178	94262	204073	30492	121679	109811	79319	42360	305748	305748	1589889	2010-06-30	-	12.15%	12.15%	23.43%	1.3891	-	1.77	0.44	11.82	0.14	1.1676	1.0288	0.1466	0.6694	0.3999	3.9%	13	73	65
2010-05-27	2010	1	5.2	4.77	-	6.86%	6.86%	378455	378455	49218	49218	37845	37845	0.1238	0.1238	994585	442961	2088	551624	105645	32561	150629	121391	138206	12423	133814	305748	305748	1446188	2010-03-31	-	12.72%	13.00%	22.55%	1.1403	-	1.8	0.47	10.06	0.44	1.1501	1.0324	0.361	0.8061	0.4454	4.9%	16	79	72
2010-02-24	2009	4	5.36	4.62	0.18	3.89%	14.74%	300396	1045483	26813	102560	20099	76142	0.0657	0.2490	945112	428501	1815	516611	107074	188357	26869	226737	81283	108152	118585	305748	305748	1394210	2009-12-31	-	8.74%	8.93%	24.15%	1.1062	18.3107	1.68	0.43	10.6	0.39	1.1209	0.9564	0.3329	0.8324	0.4534	4.1%	23	76	131
2009-11-26	2009	3	4.76	4.31	-	4.28%	11.02%	242096	745087	29247	75747	21780	56043	0.0712	0.1833	640406	132012	1575	508394	22606	12366	14164	227017	10240	3924	223093	305748	305748	1345291	2009-09-30	-	11.40%	12.08%	25.81%	1.4839	-	1.66	1.63	2.7	0.73	4.0809	3.5533	1.9434	0.2605	0.2061	37.2%	30	70	53
2009-08-27	2009	2	4.56	4.13	0.05	2.64%	7.03%	213141	502991	17099	46500	12875	34263	0.0421	0.1121	617986	130929	1658	487057	47540	3153	15171	227017	44387	29216	256233	305748	305748	1323888	2009-06-30	-	7.32%	8.02%	23.40%	1.5773	-	1.59	1.56	2.78	0.84	3.9692	3.5972	2.2534	0.2697	0.2119	34.6%	27	57	68
2009-05-11	2009	1	4.7	3.5	-	4.35%	4.35%	289850	289850	29401	29401	21388	21388	0.0700	0.0700	615171	123610	1435	491561	6363	2328	634	227017	4035	4669	231686	305748	305748	1100692	2009-03-31	-	9.59%	10.14%	26.56%	1.5616	-	1.6	1.58	2.28	0.76	4.187	3.6804	2.1777	0.2522	0.2009	35.3%	48	61	88
2009-02-18	2008	4	3.74	3.24	0.075	2.05%	16.22%	205193	960207	14255	101291	9618	76149	0.0315	0.2491	627234	157857	1232	469377	105442	18542	76675	216792	86900	10225	227017	305748	305748	1161842	2008-12-31	31.89%	6.28%	6.95%	32.74%	1.5309	15.2575	1.53	1.5	2.53	0.74	3.2483	2.7769	1.6142	0.3372	0.2517	32.9%	36	62	72
2008-10-29	2008	3	3.82	3.3	-	5.01%	14.13%	266591	755014	30861	87036	23592	66531	0.0772	0.2176	587551	116743	-	470808	51002	1151	65869	216774	52153	13716	203058	305748	305748	1027313	2008-09-30	30.60%	10.95%	11.58%	23.55%	1.6318	-	1.54	1.53	2.2	0.66	4.3523	3.966	2.0913	0.248	0.1987	33.9%	21	69	52
2008-08-22	2008	2	3.98	3.26	0.05	3.68%	9.62%	198990	488423	20684	56175	16439	42939	0.0538	0.1404	552079	105744	-	446335	74274	240	66577	216774	74514	7937	224711	305748	305748	1167957	2008-06-30	31.39%	9.25%	10.39%	20.52%	1.6969	-	1.46	1.45	2.63	0.73	4.4586	4.0711	2.61	0.2369	0.1915	31.8%	19	49	46
2008-04-25	2008	1	4.46	3.74	-	5.32%	5.32%	289433	289433	35491	35491	26500	26500	0.0867	0.0867	596334	98439	-	497895	39682	174	660	216774	39856	40516	257290	305748	305748	1333061	2008-03-31	29.21%	11.49%	12.26%	25.33%	1.5662	-	1.63	1.62	2.69	0.84	5.4237	5.002	3.2655	0.1977	0.1651	37.3%	19	53	42
2008-02-29	2007	4	4.36	3.98	0.3	5.22%	16.65%	203732	897530	27024	97705	24588	78493	0.0804	0.2567	593255	121873	-	471382	76823	19411	80497	201037	96234	15737	216774	305748	305748	1229106	2007-12-31	34.76%	12.37%	13.26%	9.01%	1.5129	15.6588	1.54	1.53	2.63	0.71	4.1216	3.7151	2.1206	0.2585	0.2054	35.6%	25	65	60
2007-11-21	2007	3	4.42	3.92	-	5.82%	11.78%	244664	693798	34710	70681	26629	53905	0.0871	0.1763	556370	98646	-	457724	36802	14742	70637	201226	51544	19093	182133	305748	305748	1339176	2007-09-30	32.04%	13.55%	14.19%	23.28%	1.5681	-	1.5	1.49	2.94	0.6	5.0009	4.5372	2.3886	0.2155	0.1773	35.0%	21	66	46
2007-08-20	2007	2	4.6	4.36	0.05	3.86%	6.32%	196144	449134	21845	35971	16637	27276	0.0544	0.0892	529210	97660	-	431550	34202	17229	71423	201226	51431	19992	181234	305748	305748	N/A	2007-06-30	33.39%	10.12%	11.14%	23.84%	1.1863	-	1.41	1.4	N/A	0.59	4.6784	4.2035	2.4079	0.2263	0.1845	44.1%	30	74	63
2007-05-31	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	2.19%	2.19%	252990	252990	14126	14126	10639	10639	0.0348	0.0348	587586	101006	-	486580	2137	19639	1167	201226	21776	20609	221835	305748	305748	1651039	2007-03-31	27.46%	5.14%	5.58%	24.68%	0.7346	-	1.59	1.58	3.42	0.73	5.2076	4.7743	2.8219	0.2076	0.1719	76.6%	41	125	94
2007-02-23	2006	4	N/A	N/A	0.32	1.24%	18.03%	178647	929744	3791	110423	5930	85904	0.0194	0.2810	592392	115876	-	476516	87802	726	86758	200908	87076	318	201226	305748	305748	1559314	2006-12-31	32.46%	1.37%	2.12%	-	0.3016	18.1518	1.56	1.55	3.29	0.74	4.4583	4.0309	2.4309	0.2432	0.1956	181.0%	121	304	283

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Intangible assets (A-0)	Investment in associated companies (A-0)	Other investments (A-0)	Prepaid lease payments (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Amount due from associated companies (A-1)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Other investments (A-1)	Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)	Prepaid lease payments (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Amount due to associated companies (L-1)	Amount due to immediate holding company (L-1)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Payables and accruals (L-1)	Minority interest (M-1)
2011	4	36	410924	33407	356	-	146631	-	72196	3662	62538	-	231108	-	76033	-	-	17340	22251	214185	3916
2011	3	95	408411	31342	358	-	146410	-	82720	544	53128	-	293804	-	74446	-	-	18781	94211	222555	3494
2011	2	-	409365	27744	358	-	143711	-	35482	222	56136	-	250033	-	74473	-	-	11690	85716	193484	3356
2011	1	-	400548	28098	350	-	141022	-	59259	1123	47866	-	252466	-	73163	-	-	12597	14610	196930	3133
2010	4	-	398452	26337	349	-	143890	-	101370	4566	48834	-	207223	-	72827	-	-	10212	52951	212908	2696
2010	3	-	406329	24863	343	-	130999	-	28658	1003	41752	-	273363	-	72327	-	-	12104	55713	191851	2437
2010	2	-	405942	27003	338	-	132782	-	42360	2812	40103	-	252210	-	72325	-	-	10046	80044	198957	2348
2010	1	-	407247	25082	352	-	135654	-	133814	3558	43610	-	245268	-	72325	-	-	10478	158961	201197	2088
2009	4	-	382772	24340	352	-	138420	-	118585	4462	58590	-	217591	-	72328	-	-	7220	8586	340367	1815
2009	3	-	7666	23528	-	8511	132241	2316	223093	3423	60568	-	179060	-	17219	2300	3426	-	9020	100047	1575
2009	2	-	7842	14641	-	8578	135588	1643	256233	1563	42294	-	149604	-	17219	2155	1842	-	8351	101362	1658
2009	1	-	8031	14682	-	8577	138421	2489	231686	-	53899	-	157386	-	17219	1149	1617	820	6958	95847	1435
2008	4	-	8289	13946	-	8610	139548	-	227017	-	66297	-	163527	-	17219	-	-	3058	6324	131256	1232
2008	3	-	1834	14902	-	8643	139585	2133	203058	-	37508	-	179888	-	19648	2661	2349	610	3301	88174	-
2008	2	-	1967	14167	-	8676	143400	7009	224711	-	33365	-	118784	-	19648	200	4620	2330	2609	76337	-
2008	1	-	2414	14073	-	8709	143803	13970	257290	-	33222	-	122853	-	19648	1526	912	3394	1970	70989	-
2007	4	-	2716	13782	-	8742	146684	18376	216774	2724	41551	-	141906	-	19648	3957	3445	925	1310	92588	-
2007	3	-	2292	13312	-	8615	150830	14373	182133	6433	35354	-	142898	130	22395	275	1299	-	786	73891	-
2007	2	-	2650	13659	-	8649	152131	15231	181234	7544	35744	-	112238	130	22395	69	1445	-	-	73751	-
2007	1	-	2986	13826	-	8671	152730	20439	221835	6039	34061	-	126869	130	22395	277	1337	-	-	76997	-
2006	4	-	3082	14843	-	8834	148862	17661	201226	756	39957	26018	131153	-	22395	104	1558	38	-	91781	-

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Cost of sales	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Minority interest	Finance/interest income	Share of profit/ (loss) of associates	Selling and distribution costs	Other expenses
2011	4	334968	8450	-	1505	218	289626	422	176	1990	-	-
2011	3	401661	19920	-	1494	1024	334638	138	149	2204	-	-
2011	2	345512	9706	-	669	1584	307300	223	229	1592	-	-
2011	1	407215	14918	-	717	435	345017	437	229	2154	-	-
2010	4	326057	9154	-	1087	696	287288	259	243	1287	-	-
2010	3	329492	12649	-	967	783	283916	89	158	1275	-	-
2010	2	334154	9510	-	1210	177	293717	260	93	1088	-	-
2010	1	378455	11100	-	994	333	330640	273	254	1810	-	-
2009	4	300396	6474	-	1001	2806	276960	240	439	1133	-	-
2009	3	242096	7550	-	119	98	214606	83	1376	402	-	-
2009	2	213141	4001	-	109	108	197652	223	1173	438	-	-
2009	1	289850	7810	-	112	45	262098	203	1499	217	-	-
2008	4	205193	4667	139756	-	1398	6915	30	1579	203	43271	974
2008	3	266591	7269	185020	-	313	5950	-	1809	130	45797	955
2008	2	198990	4245	136518	-	3214	8661	-	2065	217	37625	998
2008	1	289433	8991	204886	-	442	6193	-	1950	278	44403	1130
2007	4	203732	2436	132907	-	5404	7199	-	1588	240	43536	298
2007	3	244664	8081	166273	-	337	5421	-	1443	108	38810	1338
2007	2	196144	5208	130644	-	703	5562	-	1928	77	39096	1705
2007	1	252990	3487	183515	-	1603	7118	-	1562	442	49969	985
2006	4	178647	2139	120658	-	2538	7267	-	1634	296	50636	171

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue

year	qrt	Others	Elimination/Adjustment	Malaysia	Singapore
2011	4	7089	16886	259138	85627
2011	3	5804	45114	352690	88281
2011	2	5684	-	257228	82600
2011	1	3098	-	310908	93209
2010	4	5928	-	243218	76911
2010	3	3198	-	250058	76236
2010	2	3740	-	254759	75655
2010	1	2401	-	290397	85657
2009	4	2729	-	251375	46292
2009	3	3843	-	238253	-
2009	2	3702	-	209439	-
2009	1	2714	-	287136	-

Financial Quarter Segments Profit

year	qrt	Others	Elimination/Adjustment	Malaysia	Singapore
2011	4	1686	513	19471	28288
2011	3	421	210	46183	22075
2011	2	488	-	29890	10394
2011	1	522	-	46893	16262
2010	4	255	-	26920	12800
2010	3	724	-	36224	10859
2010	2	519	-	31548	9585
2010	1	625	-	29651	19122
2009	4	641	-	25400	1483
2009	3	388	-	27976	-
2009	2	596	-	16193	-
2009	1	704	-	28501	-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING