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Saturday, May 26, 2012

KLCI Stock - TDM / 2054 - 2012 Quarter 1

TDM BERHAD



Company Description
TDM BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company engaged in the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. The Company’s segments include plantation, food, health and others. Plantation involves cultivation of oil palms, sale of fresh fruit bunches and other related products. Food involves integrated poultry farming and processing of related products. Health includes provision of consultancy and operations of specialist medical centers. Others include investment holding, property development and project management. The Company’s subsidiaries include TDM Plantation Sdn. Bhd., Kumpulan Ladang-Ladang Trengganu Sdn. Bhd., TDM Trading Sdn. Bhd., TDM Capital Sdn. Bhd. and Kuantan Medical Centre Sdn. Bhd.

Company Info 
Listing Date2002-05-16
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,022,798,801 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorPlantation
Major IndustryOil Palm & Others Crop
Sub IndustryMedical Centers
Websitehttp://www.tdmberhad.com.my/

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.17-0.185)/0.565 = 7.05 (Moderate)
Target Price4.52+0.185 = 4.70 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.565, DPS 0.185)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above SMA20 with stronger buy volume than sell or when below Bolinger band and got strong rebound signal
Comment
Revenue decreased 27.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.7%, eps decreased 60.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, gross margin dropped but still very high, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower debt ratio and is far from historical high, benefit from long payables repayment period for cash flow, cpo price decreasing, crop production going to increase in second half of year
First Support Price3.8
Second Support Price3.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Jupiter Target Price5.3 (2012-02-28)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity15.69%
Dividend Yield4.44%
Gross Profit Margin46.86%
Operating Profit Margin25.00%
Net Profit Margin26.38%
Tax Rate30.33%
Asset Turnover0.3541
Net Asset Value Per Share4.81
Net Tangible Asset per share4.77
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.96
Cash Per Share1.02
Liquidity Current Ratio1.9752
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8208
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5212
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2176
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1756
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.1%
Days to sell the inventory40
Days to collect the receivables32
Days to pay the payables249

Technical Analysis 
SMA 204.324 (Downtrend 14 days)
SMA 504.507 (Downtrend)
SMA 1004.369 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.645 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.156622 ( 0.014787 )
Signal (9)-0.12922 ( 0.00685 )
MACD Histogram0.027402 (Bearish trend 24 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.926
Bolinger Lower Band3.722

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to lower average CPO price although registered higher production of CPO and PK

- Healthcare Division's revenue and pbt increased due to recently acquired TDMC Hospital Sdn Bhd and growth in the number of patients

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1191019*0.115/242424 = 0.565, estimate PE on current price 4.17 = 7.05(DPS 0.185)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1174607*0.14/240544 = 0.6836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.65/5 (DPS 0.215)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6207*1.1 = 0.6828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.87/4.79 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1258+0.1354)*2*0.9 = 0.4702, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.98/5.17 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1258*0.85*4 = 0.4277, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.13/5.96 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4184*0.9 = 0.3766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.03/6.63 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/5.75 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0933*4 = 0.3732(0.0933 is average of eps in FY10Q1 and FY09Q4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/4.82 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/4.16 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)

TDM latest news (English)

TDM latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-05-1520121N/AN/A-1.48%1.48%9767197671257612576117668176680.07290.0729144470825368925294119101939433196174063224424198162387924830324242424242411127262012-03-3146.86%25.00%26.38%30.33%0.3541-4.814.770.961.021.97521.82081.52120.21760.175631.1%4032249
2012-02-27201145.054.560.1853.78%13.65%13542250323463538221164443421603060.18380.6664144906027445324868117460718632111377124226176100725504832422442424121024054411264502011-12-3161.06%48.15%46.92%29.23%0.35867.00754.784.740.990.931.85911.73281.22560.23870.189430.3%3757265
2011-11-24201134.863.44-6.22%13.59%15150636781271897154173514741125110.21450.4736104578121769020331828091141320745112845217610066809383572144572400232375567896752011-09-3062.59%46.94%47.45%27.39%0.4971-3.43.360.980.891.73941.61221.23020.26950.208224.8%3438238
2011-08-09201123.452.6-4.21%8.02%126984232777441058227731996610370.13540.25909785952177351912976086059318459332884217610013385154571606432362752356326710212011-06-3047.65%34.89%34.73%26.66%0.4889-3.153.120.910.71.48381.35590.96720.29350.222517.3%3450248
2011-05-19201113.222.720.033.79%3.79%105792105792381723817229041290410.12580.1258965560199624187797659363788211187588817610026695325832086832309322309327274352011-03-3149.42%36.14%36.08%22.45%0.4523-3.243.230.980.91.84551.72441.34340.26720.206730.1%3149249
2011-02-21201043.162.630.1354.57%12.87%1355504208555096613142033215936080.14710.418492902220166818219727354140965548631647710647586102696251761002257452237316885222010-12-3156.42%37.65%37.60%33.50%0.4537.28983.173.160.970.781.64911.54761.12670.28440.217124.2%2757246
2010-11-26201033.422.43-4.10%8.77%110136285306367748045728261603950.12680.27258767381880851806568865357896190272337310647538869154961219712228772215965415912010-09-3049.34%33.46%33.39%21.62%0.4366-3.033.020.80.551.64151.48920.85110.28050.214524.1%3887245
2010-08-10201022.571.93-1.94%4.91%85246175170168614368212670321330.05720.145384300018850217501654498318169032260941064752278433101031652213372211855312082010-06-3037.41%19.81%19.78%23.54%0.4365-2.882.880.830.471.44811.31290.72420.29590.223617.4%3483244
2010-05-17201012.451.61-2.91%2.91%8992489924268222682219463194630.08890.08898713032032101728066809335672302956310647532643320801385552189342189344203532010-03-3144.08%30.01%29.83%25.80%0.4106-2.972.970.650.631.50481.38340.87990.31220.233222.2%3481269
2010-02-25200942.01.670.133.29%8.46%97508335593302417748721322547810.09740.2503838660190792168416478682371522520245571298371195233621064752188812188813655312009-12-3149.86%31.09%31.01%28.64%0.40026.67262.882.880.580.491.39931.29930.73740.30240.227517.3%2689252
2009-11-24200931.71.49-3.23%5.35%95286238085281124724620202334600.09230.1529829616204761166886248552591419279234831310256635168481141772188812188813414542009-09-3043.53%29.62%29.50%26.60%0.4005-2.782.770.560.521.23411.11810.72480.33670.246811.1%3368282
2009-08-13200921.721.48-1.45%2.11%7508114279912644191349140132580.04180.0606870346242166162566281801444910694341131025375534141344392188812188813677202009-06-3032.01%16.97%16.84%25.82%0.4136-2.82.790.60.611.22391.11490.68650.39570.278212.2%3885344
2009-05-27200911.81.45-0.67%0.67%677176771764886488411341130.01900.01908545612361461602061841579105196376131025271423381333632168982168983817402009-03-3129.00%9.73%9.58%32.92%0.4363-2.782.770.640.611.16291.0770.69870.3920.27638.3%3071340
2009-02-26200841.781.30.142.51%16.06%941484050552476614068615414985920.07090.45378613622476161578161374672318259131776710119946405286381298372172972172972998692008-12-3148.17%26.21%26.31%37.14%0.45673.04152.752.750.50.61.17661.01010.65890.41410.28758.9%6365363
2008-11-26200831.411.0-5.90%13.67%1230393109074950711592035845830240.16450.38288952882878841557660740433576236254543101786995154081071942178822168982440272008-09-3055.16%40.39%40.24%26.24%0.4565-2.732.720.410.491.16251.06460.4610.48640.32169.2%45125367
2008-08-25200821.730.99-4.40%8.17%87959176233361886641425400471800.11760.2187862777284993149055777844582514557842210178631268228461246322159132157193735292008-06-3048.59%41.31%41.14%28.28%0.4202-2.612.610.660.581.06981.00120.54430.50630.33034.4%44105527
2008-05-28200812.241.52-3.95%3.95%8827488274302253022521707217070.09920.0992820723271778144225489451059858881037810119947105668955312188762188764749602008-03-3151.36%34.44%34.24%26.35%0.3911-2.442.440.890.441.02580.96060.47640.50840.33111.6%56110736
2008-02-27200742.281.620.07431.75%7.22%10940426712720371599449239381700.04290.177179096626229715853528669434422476658047671918676244801011992155242155244849292007-12-3160.66%18.83%18.62%50.60%0.337712.70452.382.380.950.470.94390.89640.54120.51150.3316-4.0%76911309
2007-11-27200732.711.5-4.66%5.55%76943157723330773957324303289310.11280.13428070352853298745521706110265992731776719549721820985392155242155243254412007-09-30-43.02%42.99%25.21%0.2802-2.382.380.630.461.13251.08180.56420.55620.353610.2%19146310
2007-08-28200721.641.33-0.93%0.92%463458078059946496466846290.02170.02157651322638548308501278110547813179761791218867891170212155242155242780252007-06-30-13.13%12.93%18.84%0.195-2.292.290.560.371.13841.09530.57550.53520.344812.9%17177365
2007-05-2820071N/AN/A-0.01%0.01%344353443550250262620.00030.000375942426301181114964137561447612200179123085911587972155242155242694052007-03-31-1.91%1.46%87.45%0.1355-2.272.270.550.340.88160.84720.43730.53860.3463-19.4%24245655
2007-02-2820064N/AN/A0.022.37%3.94%68429194451155132732311651194080.05410.09017816282892028009492426423932155080559562084320763767192155242155242025922006-12-31-22.85%22.67%22.41%0.087510.43862.252.250.420.380.95920.92390.45450.5970.37-10.7%444511182

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale investment (A-0)Biological assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Retirement benefits obligations (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Retirement benefit obligations (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
201211625090478571110004700-588824248303-336625205149544035-8900231911426697--826-15570325294
201141515018038571110004700-5822502245241194229723151139279279-89551564114210350-5616926-16630424868
201131353997838888-4700-329293214290119403522152-54565-4225242282715178-397613167715364220331
201121513849747425-4700-328184165012-25821832-66059-4448518098273056--778216015961619129
201111413735561468-4700-298697208912-22518834-59027-425377428331187--333316115083118779
201041483676241468-4700-296458176702-5615918-65948-4248915208336275--324516014714618219
20103-3600281070-4840-274873122333--21882-91712-420211923413844--2922-13996218065
20102-3592421070-4836-270985103457--19305-84105-41946223014692219--2902-13773617501
20101-3585681070-4847-269879138555--19116-79268-41662258115094253--2601-15060417280
20094-3581081070-4810-271595107020--14522-81535-41188268617942441--3299-13938416841
20093-3567601070-4809170375101414114634--18341-62213-4094237951857192--2360-15561516688
20092-3555771070-480917155497664134439--21336-83897-40593410716351597--2642-19159216256
20091-3552541070-480917176999700133363--16392-72204-40594303116554348--2610-18390816020
20084-3549121070-480917274693846131025--33123-69831350040772285116414507--3374-19097115781
20083-3538611216-481017700688057107194--22772-14037224500277901353170141965--3413-18716215576
20082-353804138-481017526183778124632--15718-10463624500284191370171136336--3246-18941114905
20081-353561138-48101732358325195531--13079-9711839500285871414173020815--6430-17330214422
20074-353147--480917374881742101786--8928-6680639500310131987172321038--12727-15430915853
20073-363896--48101644827606298539--8854-9039284500232031266172124154311-22764-1451498745
20072-360921--48101686627263779931--5979-721929876623203126617376398--5677-1268078308
20071-360818--4810-24499773812--5806-691816650024240172017595163--8300-1553298111
20064-360763--46471692637432081808--6343-844847850027127182917591716--7272-1709998009

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeSelling and distribution costsDiscontinued operationOther expenses
20121976717814519053115052040027913741535-918
201141354221857352736179579019318623-241314821546
20113151506196945667481378823412729-24358651660
201121269841175966479197383117435350-1783-816
2011110579285715351156162513266560-1433-979
20104135550170765907468407626950675-2320-248
2010311013679495579376150716372564-2546-82
20102852463969533592286814256222-1578-38
2010189924692050284160207112818439-1842-69
200949750886604889476331317313259-2074-2223
2009395286747853809113110112158432-1960-235
200927508132655104798126511237239-1114-206
20091677172136480819844311673239-1636-184
200849414891984880089391821286154-3092-211
200831230391299155170183146416053671-2445-1145
20082879591023345216152716111505555-1927-132
200818827479634293517988310320555-4981-517
200741094041030743040229503226146825-9188-5398
20073769438338-25859452435436----
20072463451129-93238942647197----
2007134435439-1552694364721----
20064684293477-126887761667385----

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersPlantationFoodHealth
20121-71201-26470
20114-111062-24361
20113-128658-22848
20112-94126953323325
20111-84284278018728
201041721291680558621072
201031164873156648818844
20102-59135662919292
20101-83054744118699
200941139163263689315961
200931042459635833116896
20092830942550695917263
20091738238999609315243
200841121064714384914375
200831372786219762515468
20082298264215596714795
20081845260735572713360
20074574188786392410953
20073547154959491711596
20072272128151496610507
2007111561876551469368
2006491284231986418341

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersPlantationFoodHealth
2012119023239-2712
2011430962617-2094
201134967969-3014
20112189399329573405
20111191361621741645
201046424808411343374
201033694304063782296
2010225144571362565
201011249346522539
20094614284214571977
200934775208265731938
20092183883831722251
2009196644283091403
20084342237827651407
200838329390455001633
200828753266658901660
200814993245497231406
2007410283119532506641
20073443428201254696
200722055061238966
20071607742278645
200641461168572191614

Monthly Business Data
yearmthCrude Palm OilFresh Fruits BunchesPalm Kernel
201246662.5731525.651737.82
201236645.0832337.321797.74
201226169.5130783.781790.34
201217847.4442888.922349.06
2011129777.356910.862872.58
20111110369.7759651.272754.53
20111013307.0976352.43556.51
201191247376509.113099.01
2011811658.0958512.852833.4
2011711744.559638.22573.18
201168898.8947102.131920.58
201158995.2345327.782196.47
201146403.8137360.151726.89
201137578.5739976.992024.48
201126730.5134818.251858.43
201115977.2333604.871815.54
2010129396.6449073.092553.31
20101111638.4461688.553216.12
20101012293.0262127.163314.29
2010910331.2854109.472729.32
2010810275.3851259.892728.13
2010710042.8851319.652560.94
201068070.1341071.871950.17
201056474.1831569.521565.69
201046368.8232184.921655.95
20103819040207.722179.95
201026871.1233745.691816.3
201018156.8942267.422271.24
2009128149.955344.912510.45
2009118694.4152210.922463.83
20091012721.768808.913346.31
2009910200.4755390.112607.77
2009810208.349391.642543.94
200978475.6740570.482030.03
200967245.5233989.881683.06
200956963.5633989.761786.71
200946754.1333314.141819.6
200936992.2635396.741952.66
200926250.0730896.161728.07
200917071.5640453.962044.42

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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