KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 7

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	19,690,258,280 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(19.82-1.1)/0.8961 = 20.89 (High)
Target Price	18.82+1.1 = 19.92 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.8961, DPS 1.1)
Decision	BUY if stock price still uptrend follow above SMA20
Comment	Revenue increased 1.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.1%, eps decreased 1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.1%, no cash generated from operating but got generated cash from financing activities to cover financing expenses and used 54.2% of Group cash to cover other expenses, operating margin slightly increasing, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from above moderate to high level now, higher debt ratio and still not yet near to historical high, all repayment period is good
First Support Price	19.0
Second Support Price	18.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	15.2 (2012-02-27)
CIMB Target Price	21.8 (2012-04-18)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	13.60%
Dividend Yield	4.04%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	4.20%
Net Profit Margin	4.15%
Tax Rate	27.51%
Asset Turnover	2.9232
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.81
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.81
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.74
Cash Per Share	0.47
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.2188
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9942
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.0993
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.044
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.509
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	3.6%
Days to sell the inventory	14
Days to collect the receivables	54
Days to pay the payables	48

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	19.263 (Uptrend 41 days)
SMA 50	18.826 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	18.177 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	17.288 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.277834 ( 0.008084 )
Signal (9)	0.234936 ( 0.010724 )
MACD Histogram	0.042898 (Bullish trend 14 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	20.08
Bolinger Lower Band	18.446

My notes based on 2011 quarter 7 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue resulted from higher average product selling prices and higher sales volume

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 higher operating expenditures

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 4811964*0.185/993454 = 0.8961, estimate PE on current price 19.82 = 20.89(DPS 1.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 0.4356*2 = 0.8712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.71/17.62 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.2101+0.23)*2 = 0.8802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/16.64 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.23*4*1.05 = 0.966, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.69/15.06 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.79/11.98 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

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