KLCI Stock - KAF / 5096 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 120000000*1.26 = 151,200,000 (Small)
NTA per share : (218979-7500)/120000 = 1.76
P/BV : 1.26/1.76 = 0.7159
Forecast P/E now : (1.26-0.075)/0.1556 = 7.62 (High)
ROE : 9.46% (Low)
DY : 0.075/1.26*100 = 5.95% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : 274369/77434 = 3.5433 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue, profit and assets increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing, eps got an average of 0.0432 from last 4Q(current quarter is lower than this), other income got an average of 3720 from last 4Q(current quarter is lower than this also), assets dropped more than 20%, good cash flow, below moderate debt(half dropped from preceding quarter), navps decreasing
Technical Support Price : 1.2
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's profit before tax for the current interim period reported on, is higher than the preceding interim period due to mainly to higher volume of transaction and other income for the current interim period
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1729*0.9 = 0.1556(10% drop due to assets decreased), estimate PE on current price 1.26 = 7.62(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0443(average from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.1772, estimate PE = 7.93/6.35 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2262, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.26/5.11 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/4.97 (DPS 0.075)