KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 4347948770*8.61 = 37,435,838,909.70 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 28348800/4359807 = 6.5
P/BV : 8.61/6.5 = 1.3246
Forecast P/E now : (8.61-0.183)/0.7455 = 11.31 (Moderate)
ROE : 10.54% (Moderate)
DY : 0.183/8.61*100 = 2.13% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.4082+0.3999+0.3506)/3 = 0.3862 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 142611/69932 = 2.0393 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (3897700+3694200)/2/(29913300/365) = 46 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 8.93+0.18 = 9.11 (PE 12, EPS 0.7445, DPS 0.18)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price near to 8.4
My Comment : Global coal price increasing however strong Ringgit now, good cash flow, high debt but decreasing, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 8.4
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 10.15 (09 Jun 2010)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a 5.3% increase in revenue in the prevailing period was mainly due to an increase in sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia. The electricity demand has shown a growth of 9.9% in comparison to the corresponding period last financial year
- Profit reported more than 100% increase from the previous corresponding period. This was mainly as a result of continuing increase in demand growth, better control of costs and the stronger Ringgit. The appreciation of the Ringgit has resulted in a foreign exchange translation gain as compared to a loss in Q3 FY2009
- The Group's revenue grew by 4.5% in the current quarter as compared to the preceding quarter. For the current quarter review the operating expenses were higher compared to the preceding quarter mainly due to higher coal prices
- The strengthening of the Ringgit against the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar during the quarter under review resulted in a higher foreign exchange translation gain
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate PE on current price 8.61 = 11.31(DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart
- http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYRJPY=X+Interactive#chart6:symbol=myrjpy=x;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

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